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San Juan Basin Royalty Trust Message Board

  • cmclaren cmclaren Jan 24, 2002 12:57 AM Flag

    If you bears are wondering why some people like this stock go to the above sight. The guy who writes it is a very good analyst. If you want to short something you might like KMP. McDep is very bearish on Kinder Morgan. Read the article "From the people who brought us Enron" dated 1/21

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    • Good morning mscow
      I am not short anything at this time. I have only taken short positions on very rare situations. I do not have any experience in energy other than as an invester.
      I am not sure if you are referring to KMP or KMI when you say they are overpriced. I might agree as regards KMI but do not think KMP is overpriced, but perhaps fully valued. I had KMP for the run up last year, and as I stated once before, sold right after the split. Two reasons for selling, one the last time they split the unit price floundered for a year or so after and I felt it was pretty well run its course and would not represent any capital appreciation potential. I still think KMP is a good bet in pipelines as is EPD. I just think both are fully valued at this time.
      As far as RT's including SJT, I thought by this time we would begin to see some recovery in NG prices. NO such luck. Where the bottom lies, is anybody's guess. With the warm winter (we were 72 and sunny yesterday in Missouri) and the extremely high storage level we still have, I do not see much hope for a recovery in price until sometime next winter.
      When you lump KMP into the NG play and state they have not suffered the same as others in the NG business, you must remember that KMP is a pipeline company and is not as strongly influanced by prices as a trust or E&P. They get their fee's no matter what the price. They may not move as much product, but the fee's will still come in. This is the situation with EPD as well, but they do run a fractionating operation and will suffer from the lack of demand in propane.
      Good luck

    • sorry for the confusion. i happen to think u have reasonable basis for your short in some trusts, until prices recover. you also seem to have experience in energy field.
      I think the Kinder morgan story for potential gain- not as an Enron scandal- just a very over priced stock-might interest you.

      the time to shift from short to long in royalty trusts will, IMO, occur this spring as NG hits 1.74/mcf. This level is unsustainable for the long term, so after the stocks trade at a level of 8-10% yield on "those" distributions, we will go long the group. We beleive this area truly represents a super asset class to diversify portfolios and add value. But we have to get though this next few months.
      but---- kinder morgan hasn;t even blinked during this bear mkt in energy----
      good luck.

    • Good morning
      Sounds like you are trying to bait me into becoming food for someones feeding frenzy.
      Let me state this: I am not now a holder nor a shorter of SJT nor KMP nor KMI nor ENE nor CPN nor HGT and I do not follow mcdep. I don't have a clue as to what you refer to when you say "the KMP structure is SO crazy.." .
      Therefor, I will offer no opinion. If you are happy with what mcdep is giving you, so be it, and good luck. I have not delved into his reasoning for a long time, and when I did, I found his algorithm not to my liking.
      Take care, and good luck to you.

    • i've been a follower and fan of wolfe for yrs and has added tremendous value this underfollowed asset class.

      if you look further you'll see that he was the ONLY one to recommmend selling calpine last yr. I believe he mentioned ene and dyn in the same "breath".... i've read the kmp, kmi suggestion many times- to try to figure out where he "might" be off.... the KMP structure is SO crazy that i am willing to short it with him..... Kinder's fans are those who HAVE to stay the course---bankers, auditors, wire houses... I think we're going into a period when investors are more likely to question wall st motives and intnetions and not just follow their glossy printed recommendations...
      do u see a specific problem with his KMP arguement?

    • I had a heck of a run in LRT, betting the farm from about $1.20 to about $4.75! And shorted it (in small doses) intermittently on the way back to $2.50.

      AS for NG in storage, I agree...thus, my short on SJT and TRU. And TRU has what is, IMO, a lot of hair on it going in to next year.

      Good to hear from you!

    • Hello Axecent
      Gee, do you think he would have me??? Oh well, I already have a spouse, so I guess that is out of the question.
      I never feel the need to be a smarta-- even on fridays. I was born that way.
      I don't follow LRT. The only two trust i follow are SJT and HGT. I do look at some of the others from time to time, and have read a few 10K's, but the only ones I keep up with to any extent are the two mentioned. I did notice that LRT is still paying a little distribution unlike some others I can think of.
      I don't know if you caught it a few days back, but the storage level on NG is 73% full and we are half way through the winter. We went into the winter of 2000-2001 with that amount (as I recall) and had a pretty severe winter in comparison to this year. We may end up the spring with a record level, and fill to capacity in a month or two of that. That would result in lowered demand next summer and even lower prices if that is possible.
      Take care and good luck.

    • Somebody call a guys sound like you should get married.

      Sorry, It's Friday and I just thought I needed to be a smarta*@.

      I guess I'm just a nervous wreck over shorting SJT....NOT. BTW, LRT is getting a small beating today. Won't short the oily RT's though.

      Good luck!

    • Careful NHY, you sound like you are loosing control. You don't like my facts either. I am surprised. I post an opinion, and you demand facts, I post facts, and you want opinion. Sorry, just can't seem to satisfy you. Now lets see, you spent 30 years as an analyst and 30 years as a financial planner and 30 years on oil/ng wells. Are there any other facts I should know?
      Cool down, and try to set us all straight with your wisdom.

    • Sorry nomowk, you are right, as always, and I am wrong! Happy now! Of course, or would you prefer I use your OF COARSE, any normal folk would have seen that I said "I THINK" and realized I was just going by memory!!!!

      Funny how defensive to became to this TEST I put to you and how you NOW want ME to look at the FACTS!

      Why didn't you get YOUR facts straight about McDep BEFORE you posted. That would not have taken 1/10 the time you spent on your reserarch to DEFEND yourself.

      McDep isn't here to defend himself. Yet I was supposed to let your attack of McDep and his "credibility" just slide as any "normal folk" would do seeing the words "I think you will find" in your message. What a lame excuse! Very, very strange that you think that shoe shouldn't work on the other foot!

      And I will also say a prayer, not for your intellect, but that in the future, you check your FACTS before posting especially when your buddies in the business tell you their opinions, IT DOES NOT MAKE THOSE OPINIONS FACTS!

      Now go have a nice day.

      P.S. You seem to be the one who keeps referring to yourself as stupid, not I. That just can't be good for your already weak self-esteem.

    • ((More than a little nerve racking for anyone who is short))? Why? NG prices continue to fall. There are many better yielders out there. And why would this be any more nerve wreaking for shorts than longs?

      I haven't felt my short experience as being nerve 'racking' at all. I think SJT is a port in a general market storm, but if the clouds lift while gas prices continue to slip...

      We have over a TCF more in storage this year than last year at this time.

      I remainly calmly, transcendentally short.



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