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San Juan Basin Royalty Trust Message Board

  • noahawk2002 noahawk2002 Aug 3, 2004 11:22 PM Flag

    Question for the Board

    SJT has been a tremendous performer in a very choppy market. I got in at 17.50 and stuck it out even when the selling hit for a while.

    But my question is: has this stock reached a top? No stock goes up forever, including SJT. We all learned that in the bloodbath that followed the bubble years.

    I am not thinking of selling yet but I wonder if this stock is moving into risky territory just by virtue of it running away from the rest of the market averages. And if oil prices stabilize or drop, SJT most certainly will drop with it.

    I am wondering what people think about this now because discretion is always the better part of valor.

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    • I, like you, suspect we ar a little overdone on the upside here. I decided to stand pat mainly because I do not see a better place for my money.

      The yield is well above average and it, IMO, is automatically inflation-proof. By that I mean we probably won't have significant inflation that isn't caused/accompanied by higher energy prices and higher payouts.

      I'll hold until I see something better on a risk-adjcusted basis.


    • I got in between 16 and 19 and have obviously been very happy with SJT. However, yesterday I sold 1000 shares @ 28.45. I still own 1100 shares. My intent is to get back in when the next distribution is announced. It will probably be lower -- no extra .04 likely-- and there could be a sell-off on the announcement. Sources like Yahoo annualize the last distribution (which is silly, they should use last 12 months) and screeners will like SJT alot less at .22 than at .27. I also think that the pendulum of oil and ng price rises has gone too far and they're more likely to fall than rise in the next few weeks, absent something unexpected happening. If I'm wrong, I took a very nice profit and still have an interest in the stock. The stock I sold was in my IRA so there's no recapture issue, an added attraction.

      • 2 Replies to hotpanera2
      • I didn't expect that the decline would be this fast. Since it was, I bought the 1000 shares I sold at 28.45 back for 26.41.

      • cber1 Aug 4, 2004 12:35 PM Flag

        I also think often about when a particular stock has reached a top. I've beenriding SJT since about $17 per. Within the last week I've unloaded my entire position. Reasoning being, diversification (I'm still 35% in royalty trusts), I feel as if SJT is getting a little tired (this is based on instinct only), I believe I can re-enter at a lower price, there are better yielding Canadian trusts out there if I want yet more trusts. I'm 65 so I tend to take the money and run if the money is good.



    • I have no idea if stock has hit top. I've been accumulating since 10/02 and my average annual total return is 80%. This is the direct result of automatic dividend reinvestment....the power of compounding.
      Also have HGT since 5/03 but total return is 56% ....dividends are not automaticaly reinvested.
      I view royalty trusts a a wealth creator.

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