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San Juan Basin Royalty Trust Message Board

  • ic4x ic4x Sep 8, 2004 9:27 PM Flag

    NG future contracts

    NYMEX Henry Hub NG futures are going for an average of $5.91 over the next 12 months, with a low of 4.63 in Oct04 and a high of 6.60 in Feb 05. For calendar year 2005, futures average over $6.00. Futures for 2006 NG average $5.89. This tells me the NG futures market thinks NG in storage will be consumed in a hurry and that demand will continue to be strong.

    SanJuan gas sells for about a 7% discount from Henry Hub, so $5.91 * .93 = $5.49 = estimated price of San Juan gas for the next 12 months, or about 26% higher than today's closing price of $4.34 at the EP-San Juan hub. And this makes no allowance for SJT getting a more favorable contract in Apr 2005 as a result of the open bidding process being conducted by Burlington.

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