If this trust is topping out as some have posted, why wouldn't one just place stop loss orders at say 8 - 9% below the current price take the dividends until such time SJT dips and go from there?
Let's hope this thing won't tank like Star Gas.............
<<Times change and it's hard to predict the future (always has been). I was in London in June, England is prosperous, the pound is worth a lot and the people are even getting fat like us but they are doing well. I was in Rome before that, hell, even the Italians look prosperous>>
I periodically go to Greece, and to me this is a very interesting story as well, because they are a young capitalist country (well attempting to be capitalist, with heavy socialist overtones) but since they joined the EU and the Euro, they are experiencing inflation for the first time but there is also an emerging middle class that likes its toys.
I just worry that our governments are doing their best to
I'd like to believe we're headed towards your global capitalist utopia with wise governments etc. but I'm afraid at this point I'm too much of a cynic.
I don't think so. America will always be a leader, we are too rich and the more the merrier.
Times change and it's hard to predict the future (always has been). I was in London in June, England is prosperous, the pound is worth a lot and the people are even getting fat like us but they are doing well. I was in Rome before that, hell, even the Italians look prosperous.
Very interesting scenario you have there, and I can't claim to have the foresight to know exactly how or whether it would play out.
A couple of quick points come to mind though.
Your scenario strikes me as a "America loses it place as the world's economic leader" which seems rather likely at some point, especially if we move further toward a central controlled economy (via government takeover, i.e. Government medical, etc. /high taxes) while China is discovering the joys of capitalism.
That would truly sadden me, though.
We do seem to be lurching toward some sort of world economy which I suppose should be for the best in the end, but might bring pain in the meantime.
I dunno. I'm much better at just reading charts that forcasting global trends. Besides the global trends you are talking about sound pretty depressing.
Gunga --- I think you have it about right --- IMHO the general US stock market is still overvalued by 10% to 15%, it's now a global economy, it could be that the US markets will be weak for a few year to come and other emerging global powerhouses like China and India are the places to be --- plus, of course, energy investments.
Here's a link re China. Has some interesting pictures of some really strange places. I like Kitco.com; I don't own any gold now, but they have a lot of good independent commentary about all sorts of things, not just gold.
Regarding the equity market outlook in general and the recent board comments that we may be in a secular bear market for years, I have to point out another possible scenario.
With all this hyper growth in China and India sucking up crude/energy at record levels. Worldwide GDP growth, on average, is on pace to expand handily over the foreseeable future. This has been one of the strongest energy demand arguments on this board, and I agree with it.
But to me, if a country growing as fast as China, with a middle class that exceeds the U.S. population, the backdrop has changed dramatically from the 1968-1980 bear market. Throw in India and you have a massive cultural shift occurring. Large populations maturing into "look alike" U.S. consumers, etc.
Companies are obviously more global now and it's harder to find pure domestic plays. If the U.S. economy stagnates for several years of even a decade, the rest of the world can offset much the weakness.
Not that I'm a stout bull right now, I think we're headed lower on the averages before we go higher. I just feel the period of 1968-1980 played under dramatically different rules and doesn't apply to the current market backdrop.