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San Juan Basin Royalty Trust Message Board

  • thpoc thpoc Nov 19, 2004 7:17 PM Flag

    Cheers to all

    Congrats to ic4x on the dividend call. I'll stay away from that area of expertise. I did make the call the announcement date would be Friday and to buy ahead of the announcement and prior to winter. It turns out winter is coming early in Europe, which was a big reason energy prices jumped today. I also think the weak dollar will support US natural gas prices
    since a weak dollar is benefical to exports, especially in the chemical industry, so industrial use will remain strong.

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    • Be careful, the principal reasons for today's energy sector run-up (including SJT) was the refinery outage in Venezuela and the Yukos noise.

      The ensuing relief rally was looking for an excuse to show itself and will likely be short-lived as weakening fundamentals continue to show themselves.

    • GUNGA- what are some of your top currently purchased moneymakers? Have some cash and want to make most money in next year! What do you rec. for purchase this week??

    • Bigpig--- I have looked at MSSN but prefer CEO as it has the Chinese oil denand built in as well as it proximity to its market. It also has the umbrella of the Chinese Government to insolate it from any upheavals such as might be experienced in the Islamic world.

    • You mentioned CitiGroup (C)
      as Possible Investment. Let
      me see now how many Millions
      written off by Citigroup for Enron
      Scandal, how many Millions written
      off by Citigroup for Worldcom
      Scandal,how many Millions written off on
      Settlement with NY Attorney General's
      Office on Illegal Trading Pratices
      with Investors. Wait, didn't they
      just close their Japan Office because
      of Illegal Trading Problems?

      This Company needs a Course in
      Ethics 101.

      Maybe Jack Grubman could teach
      that Course, right?

    • Brad -

      See Msg. #'s 10190 &10191 on MSSN's MB.

      If you like China you will like Yemen. Looks like TGA is popping on a rumor.

    • My previous point was that even in the face of all the new residential and commercial construction increasing demand over the past five years and continued recent nat gas production disruption from the GOM, injections are still running well above recent years and stand at record levels. Muted summer cooling degree days obviously contributed to this, but there are other underlying reasons.

      Natural gas oriented drilling permits and rigs actually turning to the right are also at high levels. Not that I'm calling for US production to rise, but near-term, more gas is coming to market.

      I'm not calling for a whole sale collapse of prices to the sub $3/mcf level, but I wouldn't be surprised to see spot hit in the $3.50 range by the spring/early summer 2005. If oil rolls over more attention may focus on the fat supply fundamentals with nat gas.

      Caveats are a much colder than average winter or serious geopolitical events that launch crude again.

      This is a short-term call on nat gas. Long-term, it's still a great place to be, just not in these trusts at these valuation levels. The risk/reward just isn't there anymore in my opinion.

    • all_are_believed_lost all_are_believed_lost Nov 21, 2004 11:26 PM Flag

      Gunga, you said...

      "It seems more like a high-risk annuity than an investment at these levels, therefore why buy or hold."

      The simple answer by the likes of me, a non-expert in energy/gas, is, of course, what are you buying with that money? I would suggest in that context, SJT is hardly so risky.


    • I wouldn't be too worried about LNG terminals in California. This is the home of millions of eco nuts who wouldn't stand for it. If they could be overcome there would probably be enough domestic production available in CA that imports wouldn't be needed anyway.

    • You see that Mcdep likes CRT as a alternative to SJT.

    • Good idea, I'll share your idea with them for next year.

      One's a law professor and not very savvy about energy or financial strategy.

      The others live in Boston and NYC and don't have a choice in the matter, they just pay their share at their building.

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