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San Juan Basin Royalty Trust Message Board

  • cancerfixer cancerfixer Feb 10, 2005 12:18 PM Flag


    I am ticked off at this stock. I have been waiting for a correction so that I can buy in for weeks now. It is getting very frustrating because all it does is go up, up, up. I am so frustrated that I am sorely tempted to just buy it now.

    Having said that I should point out that in 30 years of investing I have, with rare exception, consistently bought high and sold low. So if you guys are looking for a sign that the top is here -- this is probably it. It's probably a more accurate predictor than any of the technicals, storage numbers, or anything else. I haven't bought yet, however. When I do - I'll let you know because I presume you will all want to promptly sell.

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    • cancerfixer -

      I feel your pain. At least you maintain a sense of humor. I felt the same way about PWI, earlier this month. I kept waiting for a dip that never came. So far, it has gone up every day. As I'm holding most of my PWI shares in two separate IRAs, I really don't care about daily flucuations. I'm sure, at some time in the near future, I'll see some red on my portfolio screen but, the monthly divies sure are nice.

      I don't know, maybe it's just me but, I still believe that O&G is a finite resource and demand keeps growing. Eventually, the storage numbers will reflect that. Then again, I've been wrong before. Here's some food for thought: look at the last two weeks, the storage numbers were up and so were share prices. Go figure.


    • A likely decline will occur when the new distribution is announced and, as expected, it is around .05 or more lower than last month. Yahoo and other services multiply the last distribution by 12 and show a healthy but misleading 11% now. That number will go down significantly in all likelihood when the distribution is announced.

      • 1 Reply to hotpanera2
      • I just looked at the recent history of SJT

        Div Date Div Close Yld
        25-Jan-05 0.295 $30.85 11.5%
        29-Dec-04 0.215 $29.68 8.7%
        26-Nov-04 0.199 $30.84 7.7%
        27-Oct-04 0.214 $31.61 8.1%
        28-Sep-04 0.227 $30.60 8.9%

        If the distribution fell as you predict and
        the price held, the yield would be 8.9%.

        0.245 $33.18 8.9%

        This is not so out of line with recent history
        that I would be sure the price would drop a
        lot. How sure are you about your prediction
        on distribution? Maybe the market is looking
        at your predicted distribution and that is the
        reason that the price has not risen to cut the
        yield down from 10.7%

10.61-0.13(-1.21%)May 29 4:02 PMEDT