I have no special knowledge about the distribution. I am relying on predictions on this board by IC4X and McDep which make sense. I certainly can be wrong and part of the movement will depend on changes in NG prices around the time of the announcement. I suspect, though, that many investors seeking high yields do screens and 11% looks great. If 11% goes to 9% it doesn't look as good. The idea of a DECLINE accentuates this. Wherever the stock is at the time of the announcement, the odds IMHO favor a decline if the distribution is .25 or less which seems likely.
I have a long term holding of SJT in a taxable account which I don't trade because I look at it as a good long term investment and I have a large capital gain, not to mention depletion recapture, which I want to avoid. I also own SJT in my IRA. There I have occasionally traded for 2-3 points and have been correct all 3 times. This will be the fourth time and my streak may end. We will know soon enough.
Look at the 1/21 announcement -- you can read it on Yahoo-- declaring the distribution for the month and setting the dates for ex and payment. A similar announcement takes place at that time each month. Since 2/21 is a market holiday, the announcement will likely come on 2/22.