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San Juan Basin Royalty Trust Message Board

  • donchiandude donchiandude Jun 13, 2005 2:16 PM Flag

    Anybody noticing

    That we are at/near an all time high for SJT?


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    • hotpanera2
      reading your post made me go back thru my records for last 3 yrs to find that beyond fro, sjt has been my second biggest positive money maker. I have owned and sold this stk so many times I am somewhat embarrassed to admit to the exact nbr. However, after analysing all the trades, I have to say, although I made real good money buying and selling this stk for divy runs and actual divies, bottom line is that buying and holding this stk much like you and ic4x have done is the right way to go. I sold all my fro and got back into sjt well in time for this latest run. Now I see and understand that ng is the right energy stk to be in and I have determined that it is a long term hold for me this time around..some may be concerned about buying this stock now that its at a new 52 week high...I for one believe that if that was true, then this stk, using the same analogy, would have failed all of you that have held it over the past 2-3 yrs. I think sjt will continue to perform as in the past, it will reflect a price ratio relative to oil, much like it has for the most part. I for one also think oil will remain at 48 and higher for rest of my life and ng is only going to become a better investment as we go along. Every month when the divies hit our accounts, the avg cost basis continues to drop and make a long term hold on this stk that much more a viable return. This stk does not have ALL the inherit variables that water transportation does. Its history and performance says it all. Much like you and some others, I beleive I will be holding for some time.

      good luck to all

    • Trading SJT along the lines you suggest, may make sense in an IRA. I say "may" because "overbought" and "top" have been uttered frequently by many knowledgeable investors and have thus far been almost consistently wrong. I did 2 successful trades of SJT about 6 months ago in my IRA, only to get out the third time and have no perceived chance to get back in. That was in the 32s. Fortunately, I also own SJT in a taxable account. There, the recapture and large gain have made me not even consider trading. Those shares I have owned all the way up. I continue to believe that a small part of SJT's rise has been due to many refusing to suffer the effect of recapture and, thus, not selling when they would have if it was another kind of stock.

      Unless I have good reason to expect a sustained decline in NG prices or something SJT-specific that is highly negative (rather unlikely as to the second), I expect to hold my SJT shares for many years.

    • I agree, your observations make sense.

    • You could be right - we're overbought. I suppose if there was a time to sell, it has been right after reaching a 52-week high. OPEC is meeting on Wednesday and will probably vote to increase production. Speculation will dry up a bit. There's a 75% chance that the energy group will pull back one last time for the summer. But then there's that 25% chance it will just keep on going....

    • SJT hit its all-time high today at 38.90, pretty scary, it is way overbought, anyone thinking of buying SJT now should IMHO wait for a pullback to the next level of support which looks to be about $36.80.

      • 3 Replies to ic4x
      • Next Wednesday FDG will make
        Announcement on New Distribution.

        Should be Very Interesting!
        Hopefully, they could pay at
        $2 or Better Distribution Level
        for This Quarter.


      • Too High??? This price may be high for the short termers, but for me as a long term investor I am very contented. Whose to say it is too high until we see the results of the new contract compared to pricing at the Henry Hub. Also the new results of the increased production from Coal Seam Gas will continue to climb. This Trust offers both a nice yield an probable investment appreciation, so long termers "Hold what you got". Short termers can follow ic4x, he is a very bright fellow.

      • Yes it's overbought, but crude and NG are spiking nicely, so it seems understandable.

        "Overbought" can mean different things to different people, though. I wouldn't buy it here, but heck I sure don't want to sell it, either!

        It's so high I'm crying in my coffee :)


6.54+0.01(+0.15%)12:49 PMEDT