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San Juan Basin Royalty Trust Message Board

  • loupear_67337 loupear_67337 Aug 12, 2005 4:22 PM Flag

    Question for the Board

    Jason Trennert of ISI Group was on CNBC earlier today. He said that ISI's Chief Economist, the estimable Ed Hyman, believes that the economy may slow to 2% growth in the 4th quarter, in part due to high oil prices, higher interest rates, slower housing activity, etc. Consequently, oil will pull back some.

    I am trying to get my mind around how the oil market and the NG markets might be effected differently in a slowing economy.

    I understand that a slower economy means fewer trains and trucks criss-crossing the country, so less gasolene use.

    I understand that a slower economy means less manufacturing which means less electricity use which means less oil, coal and NG use.

    My question is this: Assuming a slower economy, and assuming a cold winter, will there be greater price pressure on oil for home heating or on NG for home heating? Or will the slowing economy compensate for the cold winter in both commodities and keep pricing moderate? Lou

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