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San Juan Basin Royalty Trust Message Board

  • jonho1998 jonho1998 Dec 1, 2005 11:33 AM Flag

    OT: Economides on CNBC

    Did any of you catch Economides on CNBC again this morning talking about $100 oil and $20 NG within a year?

    While I don't doubt he's a smart guy and has a good feel for the industry, it almost reminds me of when Dean Witter put out a $1000 price target on Qualcomm.

    $100 oil and $20 natural gas would just kill us. At least maybe then the DC metro would turn a profit and they could actually build it out to where all the people live.

    I still think we need to build up our railway network for transporting goods. with the exception of truckers, I think it would do everyone good both directly and indirectly.

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    • schroede Dec 1, 2005 11:50 AM Flag

      I quite certain he said those prices by the end of this year!! He went on to explain that all it would take was two severe cold periods.

      • 1 Reply to schroede
      • Laird Dyer of Coral Energy has also been predicting $90 spot oil and $20 spot gas during the winter's coldest period. He also says that while these these prices, if sustained for very long, would lead to some demand destruction, he thinks it would be far less than during previous historic price spikes. This is due primarily to deregulation and the greatly increased size of the world market for oil, but also with regard to NG, to the increase in use by electricity generators and to increased home heating use, both of which must use NG regardless of price.

    • Remember what they don't say on TV is that $20 NG would be a spot price and wouldn't stay there long. If NG were to stay at $20 a long time, then you are right, it would kill the economy and eventually the price of NG would collapse itself from demand destruction. Best case for everyone (consumers, business, investors) is for spot gas not to peak over $15 and for futures to stay in the $11 - $12 range.

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