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San Juan Basin Royalty Trust Message Board

  • ic4x ic4x Dec 7, 2005 11:18 PM Flag

    A thing of beauty ...

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    • Not sure of the reserve life. The trust, if not taken over by the partnership that has some old Enron and Dome Petroleum people associated it, will terminate in 2013. At that time the underlying zero coupon treasury will mature at $20/share and the properties will be disposed of with those proceeds plus the bond paid to the unit holders.

    • schroede Dec 9, 2005 10:36 AM Flag

      I just recently looked into NGT, held off for the moment. IF the take-over doesn't go thru, I'm in. In the mean-time, can you answer a question: What is the reserve-life?

    • I bought my SJT at $35 in May 2005, and am now just enjoying the ride. I also got ERF at $35 in the same week. I got my NGT for about $26.50 in Dec. and Feb, if I remember right. That puts it in a cheap-by-comparison position. I'm considering buying a few more shares of NGT, here.

    • Looks interesting; I'd put it on my daily watch list and wait for some bottoming action.

      Short term is looks like there is still some downside potential, which is really amazing considering what energy prices are doing. Is management that bad?

      On second thought why don't you just buy one of the zillion gas companies that are going up?


    • I read your post with interest re: copper prices, and I have to admit my reaction is the same as my initial reaction, to whit:

      1) Any trader who loudly announces his trades beforehand through the major media sources is basically trying to manipulate the market to get what he/she/it wants. They say they're going to aggressively sell into the market?...IMHO that simply means they want to buy at lower prices.

      2) That goes DOUBLE for China (and Russia too, for that matter)...these guys are very savvy traders, and they love to use the Western Media machine to trip people up.

      I posted on this last week (two weeks ago...I forget) and I was right...copper/gold/everything started spiking after the China news came out.

      Of course I'm not saying that copper will *never* come down...all I'm saying is when you're got a raging trend on your hands it's not very productive to "overthink" things..."I'm making money, but when will it end?? OH ME!!!" Take profit when it's time....relax....



    • The one thing about PCU that is different than most other copper producers is that they produce enough byproduct mainly molybdenum that more than pays for the overhead for the entire operation. So all the copper they produce, the way they state it actually costs them less than $0.00/lb to produce and they are not hedged at the present time like most other miners so they are getting top dollar for every pound they produce and the next dividend payment in Febuary should be another very impressive one as they pay out about half of the profits in dividends. When the prices show signs of decay I am sure they will jump on the futures to hedge and keep selling at top dollar. Of course that is a speculative call but made by the guys in the business it can be a little less risky. If you could find out when that time is, it may be a good time to look into shorting, but otherwise it remains a very risky proposition.

    • I have read your thought about copper carefully ----- you may be right, I will be cautious.

    • You need a sign over the bedroom door "Welcome to hotel 4X". Everyone that moves to Warm climates seems to have that one bedroom that is occupied by someone other than family. On that note if it is ever empty . . . :o)

      Copper overpriced? as compared to what gold $500 iron platinum silver all metals are sky high right now and no signs of relief in pricing. Of course this is pure speculation but as India and China are growing briskly the supplys are stressed to say the least. China allegedly has excess copper stockpiled, so say only the Chinese propaganda machine as they are trying to manipulate prices down as all metal traders know. However we can only guess as to how much strategic reserves China has or willing to dump into the market as they have large short positions to fill very shortly, we will know in a couple of weeks if they can even fulfill their obligations. That will be the time to make long and short decisions as there may be a bump in road at that time for a short period, certainly not depending on the stock price at these levels as it is so undervalued it is laughable. Demand in China show no signs of slakening as they will buy anything that shows up for sale. When news comes from China you must read it with some reservations as the government propaganda machhine runs the media and everything that gets put out. I deal with many Chinese and as some will just tell you anything you want to hear to get you to do something as they have learned from the media machine in China. As far as tires are concerned, I don't know what the situation is for these miners as if they are on allocation, I am guessing they are buying them when ever possible. Shorting PCU is risky at this point anywhere up to $120 as that would be only 10X trailing earnings and they are only going up. Price of copper will obviously depend on demand from mainly the chinese at present due to their interesting trading paterns in future contracts as well as their useage. A smart trader will watch carefully if all copper promised for delivery gets to the customer at the proper time. Then watch the copper spot for fluctuation and trade for short term accordingly.

    • Good try --- we have an extra bedroom that seems to be occupied most of the time, we have acquired many unexplained close friends since moving to Hawaii.

    • Copper looks hugely overpriced on the world markets. China allegedly has excess copper stockpiled, so demand there may slacken. PCU and other open pit copper producers may have trouble getting tires and other equipment like the met coal miners such as FDG. But .... I would not short PCU right here, the stock is on a toot, maybe at $75 I might screw up the courage to short it. I shorted PCU for the first time on Nov 17 and covered on Nov 25 for a small profit. I'm not saying PCU is a bad company or a bad stock, just that the underlying commodity has gotten to a price that may not be sustainable (decreased sales we are seeing in the housing and auto markets also may bode badly for copper demand). I may be wrong, will be interesting to see how copper plays out.

      The met coal aficiandos were just outraged when FindProfit recommended shorting FDG several weeks --- and bingo, just on cue, FDG reported yesterday a distribution 12% below expectations, problems getting equipment (tires), and guided to lower production in 2006. Will it happen to copper too?

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