got to admit I am also confused. After holding sjt for 5years, I am selling my last few shares. I am no expert, but I just do not see a recovery in ng for many years. The storahe tanks are close to full and there is a glut in the pipeline. Add to that new technology that may increase the availability of ng from shale (see ny times front page last weekend), it is hard to see when the dividend or share price will recover. I have read some posts here indicating that wells will be shut down and the price will recover, but it seems to me that the national economy must also recover (demand side). I recognize my reasoning is somewhat simplistic, but the bull argument just does not seem compelling. Finally, I think oil has a much brighter future and remain fully invested in that sector. jmho term
Don't apologize for a simplistic argument when looking at commodities - simple is usually right. I have a positive view only because I think since the economy has cycled down, it will cycle up. Also, I think the price must increase for all the shale to be exploited. Where I could be wrong? The economy could be sluggish for a very long time (low probability), or the price of NG required to drill shale is (or may become) lower than I think it is. My time frame is two to three years, and my reasoning is also simplistic, The important thing is we each have a rational view, know where the variables are, and therefore should know what to watch to see if our thesis will work.
Looking back over many years, $4 natural gas looks very low. Why should prices move higher? Low prices should encourage demand - those that can switch, will, and the low prices will also discourage supply as there is less incentive to produce.
This stock trades on the growing dividend. They paid .06 for june and .05 for july. August will probably be the worst month. Then there should be a massive increase in the dividend for sept., oct., dec., etc...