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San Juan Basin Royalty Trust Message Board

  • nomowk nomowk Jun 13, 2001 4:45 PM Flag


    Any of you smart calculators out there have an idea of what the next two months distributions will look like? My guess is only that a guess but I know some of you have dedicated more time to analyzing the distribution in depth. I figure we have to get at least 14 cents on average during the next two months to maintain the $14 level that we are approaching. I have some doubts that we will see distribution that high. We might get it this month (Apr. sales) but next month (May sales) will be the lowest we will see if all other factors remain the same.
    Any comments?
    Have a nice day.

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    • Seems to me the $.17 should hold for July, assuming the production #s and Cap costs stay about the same. The Production # for March may be a bit on the high side. With a cap budget of $30 million, monthly cost should average $2.5 million - March was $2.8 million. NG prices were a bit higher in April than March.

      Going forward, assuming again production and cap costs stay the same, even if the price of NG stays at about 25% less than March/April; you would think the distribution would stay above $.12. Last year the share price averaged about $11.00 with a payout of $1.27 or an 11.5% return. At $.12/mo ($1.44/yr), that would say a price of $12.50, but interest rates have come down 3 pct pts this year, so one could say 8.5% would be a good return and then a price of about $17.00. Splitting the difference would say an outlook of $14.50 with nothing changing. Some folks have said single digits on the distribution, I just don't see it.

    • agree that distribution will be low and going lower. gas in san juan june index around 2.61 which is somewhat below nymex. would expect no better than dist. in single digits come sept and oct payout. I got out sjt at 16.5 really do expect to see 12 before fall.

      btw, how is all this stock research "nomowk"?

      • 3 Replies to coloradocoal
      • Where or how do you find San Juan hub index prices and how do they apply to SJT ? Learning slowly!

      • Wh is SJT only getting $2.61, NYMEX July futures closed over $4 today and other NG prices vary from $3.40 - $3.80????

      • Hi Coloradocoal
        Thanks for the input. I got out (and I just went back and checked it) at $17.48. I figure 14 is a slam dunk but I am not sure how low we will go after that. If as you say, the distributions go to single digits, then the price will go to single digits IMO. Do you think replenishing the storage level's for next winter will keep the price up? What about the effect of more electric usage increasing demand. At $2.61 they would be better off capping the wells.
        I took the name "nomowk" the day I retired and have not changed it. I better do it as I have not worked as hard as I have been since I was a young punk. Unfortunatly, the last 25 years of my working life, I almost never got out from behind a desk. That is an affront to the human body. Now I go outside almost every day and clear brush, work in the garden, do outside work on the house and grounds,(3acres cleared) and many other tasks. My wife keeps telling me how she is going to enjoy my insurance. Then I come in and worry and sweat over this stuff. Maybe I will change my name.
        Have a nice one.

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