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San Juan Basin Royalty Trust Message Board

  • jtc001us jtc001us Jun 26, 2001 6:58 PM Flag

    san juan natural gas price: $2.67

    It took forever, but I finally found a good source for physical prices at the el paso san juan hub: www.enerfax.com. It quoted a spot price of $2.67, which I assume is in MMBtu. I'm not sure how often it is updated, but I think daily (I'll find out tomorrow).

    I hope that all understand the possibility of distributions of $.08 and less per share 2-3 months down the road and going forward. This is especially true given that the most recent quarterly report says that they expect to increase expenses above what they were for the months represented in the first quarter.

    I wish everyone the best. JTC

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    • I, like a lot of you guys, lost interest in San Juan and Sabine Trusts when gas prices got out of hand. They were, actually, pretty easy investments to buy and sell. Where I'm stuck is getting info on these things. Gas prices are pretty predictable as far as these investments are concerned. Anybody got any ideas as to what they are doing?

    • Thank you for putting into words exactly the way I feel. I have never hidden my agenda. I have published it here in the open for all to see and judge for themselves if it has merit. I have belittled those who choose to hold or gloated when unit price corrected. I know too well what it is to ride a stock down as I have done it enough times to know the pain. I will not be intimidated into not posting my thoughts one the subject and giving my read of the market as I see it.
      Thanks again,

    • Unfortunately, if our opinions aren't in line with others here, we suddenly have an agenda. That argument can be made for everyone that posts on a message board. Except we have consistently posted our concerns about SJT having some short term downside, and considering the number of newbies that are looking for good entry points, they can look at the gamut of opinions, including ours. It is disappointing for someone new to RT's to see what they thought would be a nice yield evaporate in stock price reduction. We keep our spreadsheets on these RT's, and we make projections using different NG prices, capex's, and such, and try to calculate a price where we can make a nice yield in an environment where the stock price is also trending upward. Knowing what our criteria is, post readers can decide from there whether to value our opinion or not.

      Good luck.

    • I get the impression you think I am down on SJT and other NG trusts. Not so. I am still very much interested in owning them. I still feel that there is too much "over valuation" in the price to justify going back in. NO use paying more than needed to get the yield I see coming down the pipe. I sold SJT at about $17.50 as it had gotten so far out of line with anticpated NG price. At that time I figured a 13-14 range was justified. NOw with NG prices falling like a rock and summer consumption (demand) well below last year, and even lower than I anticipated, I think a 10-11 range is quite likely. Trust's unlike company stock, should generate no "blind loyalty" like you see with many company's and their management. A trust has no personality as such, and should be viewed some what like a bond, a savings account or MM. It just is, and pays a rate of return that is variable, depending on commodity market factors.
      So you see, I am no more down on SJT or any other RT, than I am on MM's which is where the proceeds of my sale of SJT asn HGT are at this time.\
      Have a nice day.

    • To Lizard,

      I don't really have any questions. It's just that just about everyone lately with the exception of the "kiwi" has really been down on SJT and I had noticed that he had a valuation of near $16.00. I was looking for some reactions/comments given what appeared to be a reasonable analysis.

    • To jdbsd:

      I find the McDep analysis useful. I didn't respond to your question because I think it's fairly simple to read the material on the web site and analyze the usefulness of the method for yourself. I think Mr. Wulff clearly explains the variables used and how he calculates present value. I don't rely on it solely, but I recently have found the mcdep ratio >= 1 to be a to be a good indicator of overvaluation (for example).

      I'm willing to answer any specific questions about it to the best of my ability, or will call Mr. Wulff's attention to your questions if you prefer an answer from "the man."

      Lizard

    • stop wasting your time with that dildo; he's
      the same idiot who has invaded both tru/wtu
      boards lately. kiwi tim-etal has at least 8 aliases and is working on more

    • power_for_now_and_forever power_for_now_and_forever Jun 27, 2001 3:27 PM Flag

      than the majority on this thread.
      Now that the old boys have got the ex-day straight. I can sleep better tonight.
      The fed rate reduction will help us a bit. Keep your eyes on Alpine. If you have to sell, watch what they do. If you listen too much to the old farts here you will go crazy. Remember , Never ask the bloak who wants to buy your sheep what he thinks of them.

    • Hey there valu_player...

      Hold off on that Florida land deal. Didn't you see my earlier post where I'm willing to give him a hellova deal on a bridge in Brooklyn, NY, USA.

      Seriously, even at these depressed prices, SJT averages $3.5 million dollars daily in trading. I doubt the readers of this board who would be so unsophisticated to sell based on what is posted here would amount to $350,000 in total, maybe not even $35,000. So, if all these foolish, ignorant people who are listening to the "bashers" here sold the same day, it would not likely to move the price by more than a few pennies!

      His posts just goes to show the ignorance of some pumpers and dumpers on these boards. Obviously if he was a long-term holder, as he claims, the short-term price fluxuations wouldn't matter. The share prices don't affect distributions whatsoever. In addition, a decline would allow him to buy more shares cheaper.

      But NO. His only concern in life is for those few poor ignorant souls who might sell and not receive fair value for their shares. Yea right. Give me a break. He is likey an ex-tech stock pumper and dumper trying his craft in a momentum area that has simply recently gone awry.

    • Thanks for the info. As i said, it makes more sense now.
      As for the board sounding like a "chat room", I have to agree. I tried to ignore the only poster who I find offensive, but sometimes it is difficult. I will work on my shortcoming and try to ignore his raving. I have never used the "ignore" feature, and will try to continue in that.
      Have a good one.\

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SJT
11.02-0.01(-0.09%)May 22 4:02 PMEDT