These frequent price updrafts, breaking of the
downtremd, higher trading patterns, all on big volume sure
make for a decent looking chart. The stock of course
is very cheap... but has one heck of alot of
company. The trading pattrn sure looks like one to buy
more into. Any ideas as to what might be coming to
really get us going...besides y/end 99?
Climb out of the old sturdy oak and climb out
there on the limb of one of those spindly, fast growing
willows. It won't be able to hold the whole crowd for
long, so be sure to time your jump before it splinters.
Many in the mob that are passing up super cheap brick
houses to buy vastly overpriced high-tech escavations
are ultimately going to pay a costly price.
This stock is worse than a cheap bargain - now
down to 6+ times this years earnings. What gives? This
company remains highly profitable and holds great long
term prospects. Why would anyone sell at this price? I
guess they're just sick of holding an undervalued stock
in a paranoid market. Today's buyers will eventually
make a bundle here, so good riddance to the sellers.
Go join the crowd - sell Wabtec and buy something
that's selling at 100 times earnings that MIGHT come in
5 years if 100 things go right. Wow.
Here some clarifications in regard to
ALSTOM in Montreal has the capacity to build 3000 rail
cars in 2.5 year. They are using the old South Shop.
This shop was used until 1998 to remanufacture
locomotives. Because of the old design with pits (34 of them),
they moved the production line to the North Complex
where a locomotive can be remanufactured in 22 days and
3400 hours (10 positions).
We won't talk about
the diesel engine shop, but this is one of the best
diesel shop on the continent: more that 350 engines can
be remanufactured with a water break test
These moves from the old shop and the diesel shop were
achieved brilliantly by the former MK rail president, then
a consultant. The man is a legend, don't even go
After negociations with First Union
Bank, they signed up a contract to build 3000 railcars.
This contract required ALSTOM to invest to
re-configure the South shop to accomodate the installation of
production lines (Over the pits). The leader of that
contract left the company; this was smart because the
internal politics at ALSTOM is a lot of BS. The best men
left keeping the bureaucrats. Let's say, if you need
someone to run the marketing dept, just don't send the
idiot of the village.
With proper management,
this outfit can produce easily 3000 cars, the labor in
Montreal is one of the best. However, with the "old gang"
gone since 12 months, ALSTOM will have to be carefull.
Their marketing department was left by the best team
ever. Now they are back with the former CN marketing
team who are, of course, bureaucrats. Good luck
The help from the ex-MK Rail team was the turning
point for that business unit. God, what a team back
then. The team left because the goal was reached; To
bring profit back in Montreal.
Too bad they had
to go. Now, the old, regular pudknockers try to run
the business. Good luck guys.
So to answer the
question, YES ALSTOM has the capability.
The struggle continues, but this stock is more
than a bargain at current price. There is good
potential for them to beat the new earnings projection of
$2/share this year - I still see about $2.15. Recent high
volume indicates many others concur on bargain price,
and ownership turnover will be good for it. This
company does not need a suitor. In a more favorable
sector market, this stock will make exceptional gains
from here. Value warrants patience.
Wabtech (just for uncle_mck) would be a good fit
for Alstom. Alstom would not get the earnings
leverage for added stock value that GE could obtain, due
to lower PE, but still good along with complementary
product fit. Ironically, I believe GRS once owned WABCO's
primary competitor for railroad brakes. How's the balance
Like the dog it is! 13 15/16 and falling like a
rock... Earnings not meeting anyones expectations.
Remember the Titanic? An excellent ship it was, Fastest
ship of its time, went down with all hands - sank in
only 3 hours!
A good play if GE is indeed the suitor. MPI is a
dedicated EMD component supplier, and this allows GE to
attain their mandate. I believe, however, the final
outcome will produce someone else-Alstom. They have made
noises and very direct threats of moving into the NA
market. Have rebuilt an alarming number of units (to the
cost of MPI, VMV & LRC) and are building freight
cars-3000 my last count for First Union. Thoughts?
Long term, Wabtec has good potential to provide
better return to stockholders as an independant company.
At current market price company could probably be
bought for stock swap or cash valued in low $20's/share,
or a 50% premium on discounted market price. Any
overtures discovered prior to an agreement would drive
price there quickly. A company like GE could swallow
Wab without hiccupping. GE, in particular, would
obtain excellent value through leverage of accretive
earnings with complimentary product lines, including
prized intellectual property. Today, however, that is
all conjecture. Be patient. Price erosion is
temporary and Wabtec holds good investment value either
There are rumours flying around that GE will
try(or is trying) to aquire a controlling interest in
WAB, what will this do to the stock price short and
It makes sense that GE would try