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Silicon Motion Technology Corp. Message Board

  • generzal generzal Dec 4, 2007 3:25 PM Flag


    Looks to me like some nice support today. Volume surging with technicals clearing. Looks like a short term reversal to the upside is imminent

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    • HEY! that's the spirit!

    • I've got my rally cap on

    • K gam, I'll try neutral with a tinge of indifference tommorow.

    • Maybe you should try being market neutral and see how that works. Although I applaud the effort.

    • Short this stock hard. Today they tried to polish the turd but decided to flush it instead. Tommorow we break below 17. I see 16 by eow.
      This is the best shorting oportunity in the who market.
      SIMO has no product, no growth, no cash, is being sued. SIMO
      has a very high PE and PEG. It's so overvauled!!!
      The 1 year target price should be 6.
      Shorting right now, tommorow will net you an easy 10 bagger.
      GO shorts go. Daytraders to!!

    • SIMO is still green ,i sould stop shorting

    • market disappointment over the rate cut level may very well be supplying us with a temporary third bottom...

    • throw up a QQQQ comparison


      This recent down move is market wide - accumulation still occuring however

    • Generzal, I've got to disagree with you although I wish you would be correct. Except for a spike around earnings, this stock has been on a steady downtrend. Technically, I believe we are in for more of the same. The last couple days have established a continuation of the downtrend since the ScanDisk lawsuit was announced. The latest press release regarding the lawsuit is a further change in the fundamentals that is fueling the decline.

      It is never beneficial to view the technicals without an eye toward the fundamentals. Please convince me I am wrong. However, I believe we are going to be down here and further for a long while.

      • 1 Reply to jwf4392
      • I agree with you that technicals and fundamentals should be viewed juxtaposed. However, my view on the fundamental situation here is bullish. I really like the fundamentals. I think this company has shown strength throughout the entirety of this semi- downturn. SIMO has been moving more or less sideways over the last 6 months at least, but look at the semi's in general - SIMO not doing too bad. Look at SNDK.

        So, when I view technicals, they are in the context of SIMO having a secure future. I DO AGREE WITH YOU that the uncertainty of the lawsuit could be what is hindering us right now. However, I believe that value investors are eyeing this with great scrutiny. We've had many analyst upgrades as well (though I generally ignore these). Also, rather than basing valuation solely on fundamentals, I find that technicals provide a far better way to gauge the immediate supply and demand levels, which look really good right now and may indicate bullish fundamental changes before they become widely known. Informatin is sorted asymmetrically in the market, so my opinion is that technicals will lead as indicators (based on efficient market theories). The major buying or selling as a result of fundamental changes, imho, generally takes place before the investing public becomes aware of the fundamental change. However, if you can watch the supply/demand levels, you may be able to infer the consequences of some special interest or irregular event. I see strong techincals, strong support, and fundamentally the best things going for SIMO are their business partnerships. SIMO has 50+% margins largely because of the security of their business. SNDK is going to bleed time and money with this lawsuit, with not much to show for it imho. This globalizating world is making it really hard for companies, especially hi-tech companies, to protect their products with any degree of success. I think SNDK will come up largely empty handed with SIMO

        On a more macro scale, i am seeing indicators that the semi-industry downturn may be turning around.

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33.22+0.40(+1.22%)Nov 27 1:00 PMEST