A couple of items: Total Avail Days go up to over 8000 in 2013.
Cosco Dalian charterer accounts for over 73% of total charters. High percentage chartered to one entity.
So as we knew, this is a 2012/2013 story. But it should be about $10/share by then, prob. the divvy will still be 5% or higher, and NNA will have had a name change.
Shipping is not for the faint of heart, nor the impatient. Those greeks know how to hang in there. I think AF's strategy of longer term charters is much better than spot price strategy. But she still has exposure to rising spot prices, as she is getting profit sharing on most vessels these days, and while she is 91.2% fixed contracts for 2011, she is only 57.4% fixed contracts so far for 2012, I think about 35% in 2013- If spot rates go up and stay up, she gets a lot of the upside, without the risk.
I should point out that fleet Total Available Days for 2010 were just over 1000. The slide show says on page 11 that Total Available Days will be over 8000 in 2013, or eight times as many days as 2010. Eight times the revenue as 2013, as revenue is the day rate times the number of Days Available.
Now if expenses are kept in check while revenue grows eight times, we should be doing OK in 2013.
I haven't listened to the presentation yet. But looking at the report, i thought $9.3 mil for management fees was steep for where the company is. Hopefully, when the chemical tankers are all on the water, income will be more than expenses. If not, bye, bye.
I am still hoping that AF wants to build another NMM here, but since NM does not so far buy or operate tankers themselves, the "buy a ship, add long term charter, and drop the ship down" to NMM might not work with NNA. Will be interesting to watch the rest of 2011. Prob. will fund growth thru share issues, which is dilution, but as long as they buy ships which are immediatly accretive to earnings, should be OK. Works with NMM.