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Navios Maritime Acquisition Corporation Message Board

  • pkmcro pkmcro Mar 27, 2011 11:45 PM Flag

    Price Range for NNA

    NNA has been trading in a pretty tight trading pattern lately. 3.90-4.10 and occasionally straying out into the 3.80's or 4.20's. One thing that has always proved true is that a buy under 4 is usually a pretty safe bet.

    My question is where will the price be going in the next couple of months. What has been the effect of NM holdings deconsolidating its position?

    Remember the last equity offering was $5.50 for 6.5 million shares and that got gobbled up. NNA looks a lot better now then it did in November. Its VLCCs are all locked up and the product rates have fundamentals working in their favor.

    I know everyone here says this is a 2013 story, but I think we are going to see this trying to go back to 5 sooner than later.

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    • It was a valuation call, but it did note that TNK is in the strongest sectors right now - afras and suezmaxes.

      I got a report yesterday from Swedbank First Securities that was bullish on the product tanker sector. They highlighted the drivers of a product tanker market tightening - 1) gasoline arbitrage b/t US and Europe 2) Japan 3) limited vessel supply growth. And indeed the Baltic Clean index is up nicely in March...
      Still a giveaway here under $4. I've stopped buying expensive things in order to chunk as much in here as I can.

    • I don't have any 'hard evidence' to prove you're right, but have been operating on the principles you describe, expecting this to get to $5-$5.50 on a little news in the next few months. I plan to sell half my holdings at that level, and hold the rest long-term. I've been putting in a buy order every time we get to low 4's. My buy order for 3000 @4.02 was only partially filled today.

      I haven't been lucky or good enough to buy in the 3.8s, but am looking to get a lot more if it returns to that level.

      The dividend is 5% at these levels, and seems to be very secure. More ships will hit the water this year, this is a great story for the next few years, and smaller investors can profit nicely from accumulating shares in increments that aren't useful for larger investors.

      • 1 Reply to ivandhoe
      • jdfunnell@sbcglobal.net jdfunnell Mar 28, 2011 10:48 PM Flag

        To each his own, I guess. If I'm sitting on something going to 10 or 20, I'm uncertain I'd sell half my stake for half or a quarter that price. But I do understand risk management and am not about to dismiss it. (And I've done something similar, so understand the thought process.)

        My guess here is the numbers here in 2013 are eye-popping versus the current ones, but we all have our own time-frames.

        But if you get discouraged with market weakness, I'd be glad to take some shares off your hands at $3.75........Dave

    • My view has not changed: $5-$7 by year's end, $8-$10 by end of 2012, $10+ by June 2013.

      Bloomberg has a story on product tanker rates from Europe to US hitting $19,271 per day (Rotterdam to NY). If these rates hold, this is the catalyst to get us to those price targets. Bloomberg delays web links by a couple hours, this hit at 12:19,, so no link yet.

    • Look at the sideways pattern here:
      http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=nna&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

      They're calling it a "multiple bottom". You can also see the 2 1/2 month sideways pattern at $5.50 from Sept to mid- Nov 2010. That one broke south. But if NNA breaks above the $4.50 high in the current pattern, that would be an upside breakout. Good idea to buy those.

 
NNA
3.34+0.03(+0.91%)Jul 10 4:02 PMEDT

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