Has anyone here drawn up any projections about what sort of fleet expansion could be possible over the next few years. I know there are a lot of variables here that make it hard to be certain. At current charter rates, I don't see the cash flow to buy the number of ships we have scheduled for 2012, again in 2013.
"... why is $100MM+ not "significant" available cash?"
I hadn't realized they raised additional funds by borrowing. I wasn't even thinking about what cash they might have had on hand going into 2012. Like I said once earlier...numbers have a way of mystifying me. I agree they now have the cash needed to do some expansion. And since they took the trouble to buttress their cash position, I would imagine this is exactly what is on their minds.
I've said this before, they'll likely have $100MM+ of cash on hand at EOY 2012 and with all 26 ships in the water, they are likely to be a $100MM+ EBITDA machine. That gives them ample firepower to pull off a big deal, say, of $300-500MM. If there is a super-compelling deal, they could do it. But I like their discipline, they won't do such a deal unless it is really tasty. They just swallowed two big bites, and there likely aren't many of distressed big fleet deals around anyway. From here it is likely to be bite-sized growth, no need to throw 50 yards down field all the time. Plus big deals can jeopardize the whole company (GMR). IMHO, it's likely to be 2-5 ships per year starting in 2013 and I think they'll try to build some heft in the chem tanker sector.
I looked at this some more. Assuming current charter rates, I roughly figure NNA could buy at least 10 product tankers for delivery each year from 2013 thru 2015. Expansion then, may or may not, have to take a breather to pay some debt and refinance the balance of the VLCC debt.
I may be delusional, but I'm seeing 100m of free cash flow in 2012 (Including some revenues from the new-build vessels) And as the fleet grows from 26 to 56 (thru 2015) the free cash flow doubles to 200 m/yr
One advantage of starting so small is that you can grow many times over without swamping the market with the boats you add to the world fleet. The world has roughly 800 of the product tankers NNA is buying. If you start with 200 vessels and try to double your size, you could cause a glut all by yourself. If NNA doubles its size...no glut.