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  • winomaster winomaster Oct 5, 2012 5:17 PM Flag

    Improved Jobs Numbers

    The finance shows are trotting out various "experts" to make denials that the official job statistics could be in any way tweeked. I heard about this first during the administration of Busch the fool. Economists were saying that the trend of the numbers no longer made sense. Any months numbers re hard to refute in isolation. But certain patterns fall outside of what is probable. One statistic that was said to be fudge was that for inflation. The economists were noticing that the value of the dollar was in steady decline, ignoring ups and downs due to world-wide developments. And the easiest way to explain a currancy in decline is inflation.
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    So do I believe Obama is fudging the employment stats on the eve of the election? Absolutely. This is how corrupt this country has become. It used to be possible to believe government economic statistics. The economic crisis and our difficulty pulling out of it is a crisis of confidence. And for good reason. Small investors remain unwilling to return to the market. There is an unprecedented bias toward investments in bonds and money market type investments.Again, all for good reason. Its a mystery to me how it has continued to rise with so little public participation.

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    • Evidence, wino, evidence. Feelings and beliefs, especially on the part of the non-expert outside observer (i.e., the man on the street) does not constitute evidence. Spin is more to the point, which of course implies motive... and bias.

      • 3 Replies to keebon
      • The numbers are not consistent with other data, so they should be dismissed. Next, there are two possibilities as to why they are inconsistent: 1) a statistical anomaly, 2) corrupt manipulation. The likelihood of a stat anomaly of that magnitude favoring the incumbent regime occurring in the heart of a heated election cycle is not zero but it is low. On the other hand, manipulation of govt economic data has not just a long history, but across and globe and throughout time is the NORM. The US has presumably been an exception to the norm for some time, but it is not outlandish to consider that the US would act according to the norm making this option every bit as likely as the anomaly. That is a fairly clinical analysis. Now, throw in my biases, which have been informed by close observation and scrutiny...hell yes, Obama is more than likely to pull such a stunt. These guys break eggs to make their omelets. That's what they do.

      • Often common sense is substituted for evidence.

      • "Evidence, wino, evidence."...............................................................................................
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        The very nature of a conspiracy...and that is what we are talking about here...is that those responsible are careful not to leave any evidence in easy view. We are only left to infer. Most people don't have well developed intuitions and must struggle by relying only on clear-cut evidence and logic. That is a handicap. The most powerful intellects rely heavily upon intuition, the seven eights of your brain that lies submerged below the conscious thought process. Sorry if this seems too mystical But people use intuition all the time, espeially with regard to other people. We go with our intuition about someone and express opinions to others about what we feel But if pressed for why we feel this way, we could not cite any really substantial evidence. Lots of people manage their relationships with others and never are troubled that they don't have that "in writing" sort of proof that some minds seem to crave.

    • The Market didn'y buy the jobs numbers either.

 
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