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Navios Maritime Acquisition Corporation Message Board

  • play_tow play_tow Dec 19, 2012 2:17 PM Flag

    Too Much Being Said About the "Cause" for the Share Price.....

    Look folks, there are myriad reasons why the share price fluctuates, at times downward, other times upward. The principal ones that matter over the long haul are the strength resilience and growth of the business, the monetization of revenues to the bottom-line, and the distribution of income to shareholders.

    Absent the effects of material changes in business, most of the share price fluctuations are noise that are non-company specific and are thus usually transient. Take the last 12 months as case in point. Share price rose 40% from January (2.60/sh) to March (3.60/sh). Shares then abruptly declined over 30% before bottoming in July (2.30/sh). Over the next month, they ran back to $3/sh. And, since being above $3/sh in October, they are today again in the dumps at $2.15/sh...low for the year.

    You'd be hard pressed to explain the "cause" for such gyrations except as "noise". And, by all indications from the macro situation in products transportation, the situation today is appreciably brighter than anytime in the last 12 months.

    5 new product tankers have joined the NNA fleet in 2012 to date, all of which have profit shares which almost certainly are now in force.

    5 additional product tankers, with contracts and also all with profit shares, will hit the waters for NNA in the next 90-days or so.

    2 additional MR tankers, yet to be contracted, will arrive in Q1/Q2 2013.

    These are the factors that, in my opinion, will have the most meaningful effect on the stock price.

    As to the "noise", it will continue and it may at times overwhelm the fundamental growth story.

    This "noise" could be providing a compelling buy opportunity, for those that can stomach these swings as occurred throughout 2012.

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    • Why, thank you. I will take that in the spirit in which it was intended. : )

    • It may sound like "noise" to you, but to many here it is more like headwinds. But it is resistance that is only blowing in_your_face and not the other players in the sector like STNG, TNK, CPLP. Pull up a conparison chart for these tanker companies. NNA has done worse over the past year. It's not unreasonable to wonder why.

      Buying a shipping stock is always at least a little like buying a pure breed dog. It leaves you constantly wondering if yours has some sort of genetic disorder that is going to cripple or kill it while still young. : )

      • 2 Replies to winomaster
      • "a little like buying a pure breed dog. It leaves you constantly wondering if yours has some sort of genetic disorder that is going to cripple or kill it while still young. : )"

        that's funny as hell, wino

      • Again, if you look over a long period, one finds no material difference between the performance of STNG and NNA stock price.

        Take a 2-yr horizon, and since December 2010, both shares have declined by very similar amounts. Only in the last 30-day period have the 2 share price movements deviated (by 30%).

        This deviation may reflect some operational moves at STNG, but these are not to the detriment of the NNA business model. In fact, the very market factors that appear to be motivating recent moves my management at STNG will benefit NNA, whose management had previously planned for additional MR vessels and has those in the cue for delivery over the next several quarters to 2014.

 
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