+ 1 cent! $1.1 million profit sharing in 4Q ($2.0 million for all of 2012) made this a profitable quarter. Who knows what the stock price will do near-term in response to this news, but it is a good indicator that Angie and team know what they're doing. Profit sharing will see them through current storm. 5c dividend is intact.
The better numbers to look at are EBITDA. I always said that they'd do $100MM in EBITDA this year. But who could have predicted that the market cap would sink to @$100MM, so you can pay 1x for EBITDA with massive capacity expansion already baked in as available days are set to nearly double by 2015. Assuming an 8x multiple on EV/EBITDA, this is a triple with the nearly certain $150MM EBITDA print in the next few years. With a pro-cyclical move in the clean tanker market, $200MM EBITDA is doable (call it a 60-75% chance) and NNA could trade well over $10.
Did AF address the dire outlook for the MR product tankers in the 2015-2017 period? The Bloomberg piece was pretty negative last week:
By Michelle Wiese Bockmann - Feb 7, 2013
Tankers that carry about half of the refined oil products transported by sea will lose money for the next five years as an oversupply of the vessels caps earnings, said McQuilling Services LLP.
Medium Range 2 ships hauling cargoes of 35,000 to 40,000 metric tons will lose as much as $1 million annually by 2016 and 2017 as operating costs exceed returns, the maritime consultancy said in its annual outlook for the tanker market. McQuilling, based in Garden City, New York, estimated earnings for five tanker types shipping both crude oil and refined products."
The idea of spinning off the VLCC's into a MLP that a few posters on this board mention weeks ago was raised in the Q & A. They definitely didn't say yes, but it almost seemed that it was a possibility they have thought about.
They did rule out any dividend raises for this part of the cycle.
Spinning off the VLCCs has a significant impediment in the way: the ships are mortgaged to bondholders and NNA as a whole guarantees the bonds. If you wanted to spin off the ships, you would have to pay off the bonds.