I have been a large holder, cost averaged in at $1.80. This morning I sold out completely. I still believe this is a good company doing a great service for rural Alaskans. However With a $600m EV and expectations to do $105-110m in EBITDA/20-25m in FCF this year and declining going forward given the economics of AWN to ALSK - which I suggest anyone buying above $3.50 look at closely - it is no longer a bargain.
I would in fact argue there has not really been a turnaround, only a mispricing when shares went below $2.00. ALSK has been benefiting from more roaming revs from Verizon as this quarter shows - 80% of the revenue growth and all of the increased profitability came because of roaming. In fact closing the AWN transaction means that they are giving up the majority of the great economics from these roaming revenues.
The cash on cash return of $25m (this year) on a $150m market cap is no huge value given the risks as GNCMA now controls the economics of the wireless assets. When the market cap was $70m, the cash on cash returns were a bargain. No more. Be careful at these levels and understand what you are buying, that is all I am saying. Good luck to you all
Fishing....."no longer a bargain" Gawd what are to talking about???? Most of the stocks on the market are "no longer a bargain". My friend the easy days are gone. Guess you have to move along to BAC or perhaps Facebook both of which are NO LONGER BARGAINS. Here's your new investment.....AFL now that's still a bargain. Kindly let us all know what your next bargain is going to be so that we can watch your performance,
fish makes some sense IMHO.
I think the upward pressure could bring it to $5-$6 within a quarter. $100M debt reduction, interest saving can at 15 cents to EPS. If they could HOLD on not giving dividend. Hope to reduce the debt further, and it could improve EPS further.
Short terms 3 months $5-6
Long terms 1 year or more back to $11 if there is no exception, just on course as it is.
Not bad, I will hold out for 1 year and beyond.
I know fish is talking about risk and bumps, WHAT bumps could possibly be at this time. VZ brings in heavy competition? Alaska economy collapse? what are we talking about..... possible but what are they?
actually I turn from hold to buy, will like to add some more to the holding.
This is pretty standard for any stock rallying on a surprise catalyst ~ sell off on profit taking and "manipulation". Institutional naked shorts are burying the evidence in the tape, while trying to minimize loss. Long time holders are taking this opportunity to get out with a profit. New shareholders are bidding hard to accumulate at best price they can get. Daytraders are getting bored. Meanwhile, i suspect $3.50 will not seem like such an obstacle once this plays out.