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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited Message Board

  • mick543212001 mick543212001 Oct 9, 2003 6:25 PM Flag

    Can Someone explain whats happening...

    I would like someone to explain in as smimple terms as possiable why TSM was down today and why it really has not rallyed much over the past few days(granted it did rally nicly till now)I mean with all the decent chip news and a lot of noise (postive) from alll the talking heads concerning chips....So with todays news(which they are no stranger to,then bam?)about the revune sales ect,it would seem a natural or a bellweather and should rally but....

    Thanks In Advance For helping An Uninformed!

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    • Greetings from Bali, all this is for now a pause. WE had a sharp rally in August. SO the company tried to give cautious guidance for the 3rd q. No sweat I am long and not selling any shares. Don't worry about short term. THE STOCK IS CONSOLIDATE BEOFRE THE NEXT MOVE UP. No atock goes up in a straight line. Don't let these short sellers scare you. Their only device is try to sell you on the fear. The chips are at the beginning of an upturn. Long abd strong. And remember I do not address you with lies and disrespect like these stupid short seller.

      • 2 Replies to dollatodonuts
      • dumdum nuts: shut up your f*cking mouth. You retarded idiot!
        ---------
        Subj: Re: Can Someone explain whats happening.
        By: dollatodonuts
        Date: 10/11/03 03:38 am

        Greetings from Bali, all this is for now a pause. WE had a sharp rally in August. SO the company tried to give cautious guidance for the 3rd q. No sweat I am long and not selling any shares. Don't worry about short term. THE STOCK IS CONSOLIDATE BEOFRE THE NEXT MOVE UP. No atock goes up in a straight line. Don't let these short sellers scare you. Their only device is try to sell you on the fear. The chips are at the beginning of an upturn. Long abd strong. And remember I do not address you with lies and disrespect like these stupid short seller.

      • I thought I was long on this stock.... even though I don't plan on selling any shares at this time..... I do have some concerns.....
        When I was in the library the other day doing some research on other stocks, I checked out TSM (Standard and Poors) and what it said was: Not only is IBM expanding there facility to be more competitived with TSM.........but the kicker was...... IBM was signing on a number of TSM customer's. (Not a very good sign)!!!
        I'm wondering if this might have something to do with their slow down.
        Anyone else have any input?

    • mick: I did explain briefly before (see following attached post).

      The way I see it is:

      (1) Immediately threat coming from Taiwan government dumping and Philips dumping. You are talking about $2.5 billion worth of ADR shares (about 200 million shares). That is a huge dilution for ADR shares. The premium of ADR over Taiwanese regular will disappear or even become negative. Philips probably will insist that they will do the dumping before Taiwan Govenment does theirs. Philips is the biggest shareholder in the board. Taiwan government has no other choice but listens to them. So there is a chance that Philps dumping may happen as earlier as Q4 this year, or Philips do the dumping in Q1 and, that will push Taiwan government's dumping in Q3 next year.

      (2) TSM has lost its premium chance to extent itself in Mainland China. This may not be a serious long term damage if the Taiwan government changes hands in March next year. The current government takes the point of view that TSM's expansion in Mainland China is a "favor" to Mainland China. They take that as the "investment" in Mainland, not the "expansion of TSM itself" in Mainland. They don't think the investment in Mainland is basically an investment in themselves.

      TSM stockholders (and TSM itself) take different point of view, they like to see TSM to expand itself and become the dominant force everywhere in the world, especially in the world's largest and hottest market.

      (3) Future threat from foundries in Mainland China, especially from SMIC. This treat will become an apparent threat one year from now, and a serious threat two years from now. SMIC will do the ipo soon. It will issue ADR in American stock market after that (just like Chinese internet SINA, SOHU,...did before). If that happens, it can easily get financial resources to expend itself quickly (by initial and secondary offerings, just as TSM did before). TSM's CEO, Morris Chang, probably is the first person to point out that threat in public. Morris even goes one step further to predict the semi fab downturn in 2005 because of the emerging fab foundries in China. SMIC's CEO, Richard Chang, publically defended himself and said it won't happen that soon. (the now famous "Rich vs Mor" dialog)

      (4) Unlike what happened in the previous semiconductor downturns in the past, TSM hasn't increase its capital spendings during the downturn. As a matter of fact, it has cut down its capex more than half in this downturn. This questions the TSM's ambition and willingness of keeping #1 foundry position in the world.

      The golden time of TSM is over, Philips's dumping is a clear sign to that. What a shame! A simple government mentality can cause such big damage to its hard built industry. What a shame!

      --------------------------------------





      Kids, Don't get too excited on Q3
      by: sucker2k2
      Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Sell 10/06/03 05:06 pm
      Msg: 15453 of 15486

      Kids, don't get too excited on Q3. TSM already told you what the Q3 will look like. Everyone already knew and there is no secret about it. So, stop act stupid and just forget about Q3 now.

      Important thing is how TSM will say about Q4 and next year. Kids, do you still remember at Q2 quarter report on July 21, Big Mouth Morris said Q4 visibility is limited and the market didn't like it at all (even Q2 results was super). On 09/05, TSM said Q4 will be "at least as good as Q3". I don't think this is what the market likes to hear. Therefore, to make the market happy, TSM has to say something better than that, especially under the shadow of government dump in near future, limited expansion in China, and aggressiveness of SMIC.

      Will Morris spin the ball right at this coming quarter report? Don't count on it, Kids!

 
TSM
22.81-0.14(-0.61%)Jul 11 4:04 PMEDT

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