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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited Message Board

  • sucker2k2 sucker2k2 Apr 7, 2004 5:35 PM Flag

    TSM March Update Tonight

    What to expect in the TSM March Update tonight:

    Cut out all the bullshits and ignore any dancing girl Morris may bring with him, TSM better to report March revenue $643 million (NT$21.1 Billion), that just represents a modest 2.3% growth from Q4/03. Watchout if anything less than that. (TSM reported $575m for January, $552m for February)

    As a reference, UMC gave March update last night. UMC has 9.3% growth from Q4/03, that is a better growth than what TSM expected to have. (UMC reported Jan $249m, Feb $241m, March $273m)

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    • Thanks again, HeHeHe!

    • I am just myself, not sucker.

      If you don't like sucker, go ahead, don't get me involved.

    • Let's set the record straight here:

      TSMC is reporting revenue of TW$57.5B TW for Q1 which currently equates to about US$1.75B. According to Yahoo!, the Street was expecting US$1.77B in revs for the Q. So, you see that there was a very slight miss in revs despite the fact that the TW$ gained slightly against the US$ over the last 3 months.

      However, the miss is VERY slight and only on the top line. I think the Street is waiting to see what TSM mgmt reports for margins and net profits before it makes up its mind on Q1. A couple of slight tweaks on the cost side should allow TSM to easily hit the consensus number for net profit.

      Moreover, the Street will be far more interested in forward (Q2, Q3) guidance than it will be a very slight Q1 miss, should there even be one. With the capacity constraints and increasing prices that result, we will definitely see better numbers in Q2 and beyond.

      I am still long and strong this one. This thing is cheap right now and the risk/reward here definitely favors longs as downside is limited. With some favorable guidance from TSM mgmt and some resolution to the election fiasco over in Taipei, we will see TSM at $13/share very soon.

      CM

      (Definitely not an ignorant Taiwanese farmer.)

    • Sorry, kids. it looks like Q1/04 TSM is below street estimates. It is even below its own guidance given in the last conference call.

      --------------

      TSM March Update Tonight
      by: sucker2k2 04/07/04 05:35 pm
      Msg: 19513 of 19547

      What to expect in the TSM March Update tonight:

      Cut out all the bullshits and ignore any dancing girl Morris may bring with him, TSM better to report March revenue $643 million (NT$21.1 Billion), that just represents a modest 2.3% growth from Q4/03. Watchout if anything less than that. (TSM reported $575m for January, $552m for February)

      As a reference, UMC gave March update last night. UMC has 9.3% growth from Q4/03, that is a better growth than what TSM expected to have. (UMC reported Jan $249m, Feb $241m, March $273m)

 
TSM
22.30-0.26(-1.15%)Feb 10 4:01 PMEST