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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited Message Board

  • garngh garngh Jul 1, 2004 12:26 AM Flag

    VXO, VIX yearly low!

    It is disturbing, so I took some profits on Xing. Not on TSM, UMC yet.

    Any other interpretation?

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    • >>>>
      Most of us are engineers...
      >>>
      What a liar? It seems that without introducing politics, you can't go nowhere.

      >>>
      VIXMO, sentiment momentum, is simply the time derivative of VIX.
      >>>>
      At least, this time you provided a definition.
      Congrats for your progress, it meant nothing though.

      >>>
      Again time is an important facotor here.
      >>>>
      Again, you can't stick to the discussion you started on your own.

      Actually, you don't know anything about TA indicators, don't you? That's why you cannot stick to any specific discussion. That is why I called on your honesty, and that is why you "put me on ignore." LOL.

      Oh, wait a minute. I am sorry. I finally figured it out, your bunch are Political Engineers. ROFLMAO.

      What a joke, quite a pity. Sorry to keep you up at night that late!!!!! LOL

    • Well said, McMem.

      Most of us are engineers. VIXMO, sentiment momentum, is simply the time derivative of VIX. Again time is an important facotor here. It takes time to reach equilibrium, and we traders can take advantage of it. (Contradicting to many fundamental economic assumptions, investors assume it takes time to reflect the events that impact market.) This is the time window of advantages for trading. VIXMO can check if VIX is increasing, which is also a good signal.

      The question is: if VIX reaches 30, but VIXMO is negative, is it a sell signal? VIX is 15, but VIXMO is positive, is it a buy signal?

      To me, again, it has to relate to the real events (political situation again in terms of oil,etc.) to be meaningful. If political situation makes oil prices worse, probably VIX will decline, and even at 30, it may get worse and still a sell signal. (However, values are also involved. It is not as simple as this!)

      Those, who know calculus well, will realize these are local signals. The underlying assumption of derivative is the function is smooth. Market signal ususally is far from being smooth. The more you take derivatives, the less reliable it will be.

      Has oil reached peaked? Your own judgment. Local signals seem indicate yes! But those with political insights on Arabic/western world may have much better overall picture and thus better judgement than us!

      I wish politics can be decoupled from the financial. But let us face the reality, there is no way to decouple them. I used to think the western finfanical world will be better insulated from human behavior error (thus political errors). Last few years prove I am wrong! Human nature is so similar! The same political fighting is happening here and east.

    • Since I put him under ignore, I did not know what he said. But your explanation is well taken. From McMem's post, he repeats his answers also.

      It seems that he simply did not get it. Apparently, he cannot read well. Repeated answer cannot reach him. He also has low esteem to blame problems on others without self-reflecting.

    • The recent decline of VIX is believed caused by credit tightening caused by rising commodity $. However, the oil $, interest rate etc are dropping or stablizing or at least perceived to be stablizing, and thereby VIX is turning around, hence buy signal.

    • >>>>
      Why honesty has anything to do with it? You got what you deserved beacause of your brainless attack!
      <<<<
      How much a brain a bunch of whiners have? Not much. Do you know what is self-esteem?

    • Beware of another cycle of "tons of arguments, exchange postings, introducing politics, national or "international" ISSUES, criminal charges, psychological breakdowns, etc, we only reached the following conclusion."

      Shhhhhh, that is emporer's new clothes. Can't you see it!? LOL

    • I don't understand your point.
      The VIX being near a low is a bearish signal.
      The VIX bottoming is not a market buy signal ... if anything it is a signal that volatility is going to increase, which means the market averages are going to fall.
      It is when the VIX is high, that there is a market buy signal.
      Did I misunderstand your meaning?

    • When the stock market goes up, TSM goes down. When the stock market goes down, TSM goes down further. So we do not need any index to know that we are lunch meat. We do need index to know how much ketchup and mustard to buy.

      TSM is a ROC stock, and there are many factors beside VIX that may change the $. I kept using UMC as the example. The stock $ dropped with no major reason about 3 summers ago. After paying NT$4M per person to Rabbit's reelection lunch, the price recovered with no reason.

    • I recommended you post, because that you admitted half of the TRUTH. The other half is that the market usually get ahead of you and me and majority of the investors. So that word "eventually" is somewhat redudant and inaccurate.

      Concerning your other argument, you would not wish to know my answer. Since bunch of you got that arrogant about yourselves, so allow me to state it here, the TRUTH and the STATISTICS has always been and will always dictate that whenever any of the posters on this board feel in a twilight zone and feel having some discovery of a new world, you can bet 90:10 go against those arrogant axxes.

    • He is right on the market will eventually reflect all the issues.

      However, this is not our concern! As an investor, we would like to predict the impacts of these issues on the market (before it actually reflects) ! Maybe impossible, but this is investor's desire!

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