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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited Message Board

  • ashuar2001 ashuar2001 Jul 23, 2004 12:56 PM Flag

    sucker is right again!

    At this moment TSM has lost $0.47 or 6.52% of its value for the day (a 52-week low!).

    Wonder where the # 1 loser (or monkey) lau_wang is these day.

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    • Some of us forgot to ask the simple question before investing on TSM: What have Moses or Rabbit done for the average citizens during the past decade? They are stealing everything that is not bolted down. Any more question?

    • That could mean that they have already sold the shares....Im sure that they own other companies and that they could of intended to sell those also..

      And, the shares they sold, now have new owners...Thank you for the answer

    • Sucker's math may be right but how about yours? I am surprised by your using the $ they quoted when the stock was at $10-$12 and dividing by $7 to get the shares they planned to dump. In actuality they probably used a number like $12 when the article was written. That would give 100 million shares to dump. Questions I have are:

      was it 2330.TW or 2303.TW, and where can I find historic volume for these stocks?

      Did they sell on open market or where private transactions also involved?

    • Taiwan government DID announce about 1-3 montha ago that they were going to sell part of their stake. The news is out there...somewhere. Stock was at about 11 I believe. I remember selling my shares on fear the stock would act irrationally. Not sure if they were selling ADR's. Thought it was Taiwanese shares but it has a fairly direct effect on the ADR's anyways.

      One nice thing is that we probably don't have to worry about any shelf offerings being announced at these prices. No reckless expansion by TSM or their competitors.

    • You guys didn't know sucker. sucker has been right on the money so far, that's why I asked him does he has anything associated with TSM in any way, he posted his answer to my question couples of days ago. He basically said he is in the semiconductor circle, he knows TSM's CEO "as he knows every other CEO's in this circle".

      About the news quote: here's one from thestreet.com for you guys, even it is more than two months ago. But, beware that, back in May, TSM traded around $10, now traded at $6.72, If Taiwan governmnet hasn't changed mind about the $1.2 Billion, then that is 180 million shares at $6.72/shr. If Taiwan governmnet wants $2.0 Billion at this moment (especially Taiwan decided to purchase US weapons lately), then 300 million shares is the number to dump. scker says it is up to 300 million shares if $2.0 billion and at $6.75. Do your math, I don't see how he is wrong!

      Enjoy, as sucker always says "HeHeHe! kids!".


      --------------

      http://www.thestreet.com/tech/semis/10158431.html

      "Taiwan Semi's stock slipped 7% in overseas trading after Bloomberg reported the Taiwan Development Fund will cut its stake in the world's biggest chip manufacturer to 4.1% from 7.3% through sales in U.S. markets. The fund will unload the roughly $1.2 billion slug in order to help fund a government budget deficit."

    • I believe you are right. Every board has a poster (usually, someone shorting the stock in a big way).

      There have been no public news I could find that says the Taiwanese government is going to dump 300 Million (these people make dramatic claims. For Pete's sake, 300 Million?) ADRs and that too in a short time period? Average volume of 7.697M means almost 39 days of CONTINUOUS selling. This guy may make people from Taiwan seem dumb and foolish, but not even novices would do this kind of selling. It would start a vicious cycle (selling = less price = more shares to sell to make up the difference). It's all BS.

    • Taiwan government hasn't started to dumped yet. The rumor said they have their two book runners got all the papaer work ready and they are just waiting for the "right" market condition to dump.

      Morris Chang has rewarded himself a handsome stock option this year, and he also gave another good chunk to the employee. They really practice communism inside TSM pretty well that even makes Chairman Mao ashamed of himself.

      Sooner or later, TSM will become an 100% employee-own stock, they don't need the outsiders to own any of "their" stocks. They are pushing the outsiders out!

      It is Amazing that Morris and the board members allow that happens (unusual lucrative employee stock option awards). That is quite unique in the stock market today. If following the accounting method in US to treat employee stock opptions as expanses, I won't surprise that their earnings may be negative!

      You win, Morris! Congratulations!

    • The shorts have been right on this one so far. I have to hand that to them.
      It does look like it could possibly test long term support around $6.00.
      On the other hand, the risk to the shorts is increasing with each leg down. A turnaround in this stock, the SOX and the market could lead to an explosive up leg.
      Risk, reward.
      Long term, I feel this is a fantastic buy here.
      Risk is down around 6, I feel.
      Reward is around 10.
      Seems like good odds to me.

      good luck all

      • 2 Replies to paichee1
      • don't worry that the stock goes down, at least in such scenario you know where the lower limit is .... it will never go below their cashposition/ share ! When a stock goes up, you never know where it will end....the SKY is the limit. With about 1.5 USD per share in cash on hand, and with its business booming, I don't think TSM will go much lower now....a stretch would be 5 USD, much lower it will never go. Anyways.....I have started piling up short term call options on TSM ...and I will continue to do so during the course of early next week

      • I agree there is very little risk buying in here. The market is acting ridiculous with the selling today. Eventually they will act ridiculous with the buying.

        One lingering concern is if the Taiwanese government has finished unloading their shares and, if not, would they continue to unload at these prices? Governments are not known for acting in a financially prudent manner but Taiwan's government is MUCH more intelligent than the US government when it comes to financial matters.

    • Oops... lost $0.51 or 7.07% now!

 
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