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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited Message Board

  • DieHardTrader DieHardTrader Jun 20, 1999 11:36 AM Flag


    Alert: No pep talk, just buy future winner
    i know many of you wondering which stock will
    the next winner. Let take a look
    First, internet Portal (YHOO) was big winner early
    Second, ISP ( MSPG AOL ELNK) mid 1998
    Then, e-commerce
    (AMZN, ONSL) late 1998 Xmas
    And, community stocks
    (GCTY, GNET) early 1999
    Also, broker stocks ( NDB,
    had their astonish gains in last
    (i bought all of them right ahead of their sky
    flying. )
    Thats not important, our question is who
    will be the next ?
    To me, it points to internet-AD.
    Please check it out before you

    This sector is having explosive growth. (+500% in
    coming couple years)
    The business entry gate is high.
    Not everyone can eat this launch.
    i am convinced
    that ADFC business model really working,
    will be the final one or two winners in this internet
    infrastructure sector.
    ADFC sell SERVICES, not software or
    This sounds great to me. Also, entry gate is high
    means competition is low.
    (Actually, only DCLK ADFC
    compete each other in this market.)
    Both ADFC DCLK are
    very good with low risk.
    Many investors made big
    money in brokers and e-commerce.
    Now, broker stock
    growth is shrinking and e-commerce just
    having fierce
    price war. Their good days were gone.
    To make money,

    Buy winner of tomorrow, not yesterday.
    Lets all
    buy ADFC and make our fortune.
    ADFC is DieHard TOP
    (Better than DCLK, base on future stock
    Good luck.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • I hold TSM stock in Taiwan. Trust me, it has gone ex-dividend or else I just got free shares from some mysterious source. Well good luck in the market.

    •, the percentage of
      major US IDM companies stocks held by institutions as

      Inst holding % Market capital # of Covering

      Intel 59% 141B 40
      TI 81.9% 53B 27
      Motolora 63%
      54B 35
      Analog Dev 80% 8B 15
      Micron 63% 10B
      AMD 51% 2.5B 24
      LSI Logic 52.3% 6.4B 19
      Tech 95% 10B 17
      National Semi77.5% 4B 19
      95% 8B 13

      TSM 4.2% 41B 6

      As you see,
      only "FOUR" percent of institution holds TSM ADR and 6
      brokers cover it. And now 15M ADR shares hanging there
      waiting for sale. Buying TSM ADR at this period is
      A stock without institutions support won't go
      higher. No MM will be stupid enough to buy TSM ADR at
      this level. If they really like TSM stock in long
      term, they will purchase it at Taiwan with 50 percent
      discount price.

      Furthermore, by checking the
      technical chart with volume by price, TSM ADR did not have
      support at 28 to 31 price level and MACD is turning DOWN.
      Don't buy TSM unless it's less than 28.
      15 million
      dumping shares will sink your boat and make you lose your
      treasure. Of course if you are a billionaire, capable to
      consume around 500M US dollars TSMC stocks dumping from
      Taiwan government (15M shares X 33 dollars) then just
      buy as much as you want. :0)

    • I made money the first time.
      The second I have
      decided to follow
      Dr.'s orders and hold the stock
      since it seems to be so under valued.
      I have had two
      doses of this web site and I can tell you I'm
      Here is where you can get some too if you want to try

    • TSMC is losing its advantages on tech and

      Remembered at March of this year EE times with news
      mentioned UMC successfully Xilinx's product name Virtex by
      using .18um technology. At that time even at San Jose
      International Airport has same Ad. post mentioned this
      technology breakthrough. TSMC did not have .18um production
      capability unitl May. Now UMC again proved its copper tech
      is on the leading edge.
      After UMC group
      consolidated, it's bigger than TSMC. Following is the news from
      EE Times at June 2 (

      United Microelectronics Corp. claims to be on the verge
      of a 0.18-micron process using copper for the top
      two layers of metal, a feat that would give it
      momentary edge over Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.

      UMC plans to offer 0.18-micron prototyping in copper
      late this quarter, with general availability beginning
      in the fourth quarter. That's a little later than
      initially planned, but it has taken time to hone the copper
      processes, said Fu-Tai Liou, senior vice president of the
      UMC Group.

      TSMC expects to roll out a similar
      process in September, with copper interconnect at the top
      two metal layers, using 0.18-micron line widths.
      Roger Fisher, senior
      director of marketing for the
      foundry's U.S. operations in San Jose, said TSMC's
      all-copper chips are not yet ready for volume production.

      If TSM always kept 20% difference between ADR and
      local stock. Probably should wait for UMC ADR go public
      and buy it in next year.

    • 35-38 possible...., but by the end of July watch out ! GOOD LUCK TO YOU ! HAPPY TRADING !

    • What do you think, folks ?

      There can be another sucker's rally from 35 level, I think...

    • TSMC price was divided by 1.23 not too long ago, but not yet for TSM ADR.

      Happy trading


    • TSM divedend still not release yet. Eddychan:
      apparently you did not read TSMC news carefully. June 11 is
      the day TSM announced 23 percent stock dividend. The
      local distribution date with respect to the upcoming
      stock dividend is expected to be on or about August 12,
      1999. Check TSM form Yahoo, you will know what
      I mean.

      Now TSM ADR price is 80% higher
      than local TSMC is absolutely right.

      stock split on mid of August, sure the price will be 20
      percent less. But the TSM ADR outstanding shares will
      also increas 23 percent, from 1209.4M increasing to
      1487.56M shares. More shares floating in the market will
      create the sale force. Since most of the time when stock
      get split investors will try to execrise some of
      their stocks to ensure the "real money" in the pocket.


      * It is
      also worth noting that many mutual fund/portfolio
      managers are embarking on their quarterly "window
      dressing" exercise. This is the process where by
      institutional investors adjust their holdings in an effort to
      provide a positive
      snapshot of their portfolios for
      their quarterly reports.

    • Hey YChang,
      The premium on the US ADR is high
      but less than 80%. If you recall TSMC in Taiwan
      already gone ex-dividend issuing 23 shares for every 100.
      Thus when accounting for this the premium you should
      use NT$151.9. Which yields a price of USD$23.37, thus
      a premium of a little less than 50%. TSM ADR will
      go ex-dividend soon also.

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