Alert: No pep talk, just buy future winner
i know many of you wondering which stock will
the next winner. Let take a look
First, internet Portal (YHOO) was big winner early
Second, ISP ( MSPG AOL ELNK) mid 1998
(AMZN, ONSL) late 1998 Xmas
And, community stocks
(GCTY, GNET) early 1999
Also, broker stocks ( NDB,
SCH, EGRP, AMTD)
had their astonish gains in last
(i bought all of them right ahead of their sky
Thats not important, our question is who
will be the next ?
To me, it points to internet-AD.
Please check it out before you
This sector is having explosive growth. (+500% in
coming couple years)
The business entry gate is high.
Not everyone can eat this launch.
i am convinced
that ADFC business model really working,
will be the final one or two winners in this internet
ADFC sell SERVICES, not software or
This sounds great to me. Also, entry gate is high
means competition is low.
(Actually, only DCLK ADFC
compete each other in this market.)
Both ADFC DCLK are
very good with low risk.
Many investors made big
money in brokers and e-commerce.
Now, broker stock
growth is shrinking and e-commerce just
price war. Their good days were gone.
To make money,
Buy winner of tomorrow, not yesterday.
buy ADFC and make our fortune.
ADFC is DieHard TOP
(Better than DCLK, base on future stock
From:www.insidertrader.com, the percentage of
major US IDM companies stocks held by institutions as
Inst holding % Market capital # of Covering
Intel 59% 141B 40
TI 81.9% 53B 27
Analog Dev 80% 8B 15
Micron 63% 10B
AMD 51% 2.5B 24
LSI Logic 52.3% 6.4B 19
Tech 95% 10B 17
National Semi77.5% 4B 19
95% 8B 13
TSM 4.2% 41B 6
As you see,
only "FOUR" percent of institution holds TSM ADR and 6
brokers cover it. And now 15M ADR shares hanging there
waiting for sale. Buying TSM ADR at this period is
A stock without institutions support won't go
higher. No MM will be stupid enough to buy TSM ADR at
this level. If they really like TSM stock in long
term, they will purchase it at Taiwan with 50 percent
Furthermore, by checking the
technical chart with volume by price, TSM ADR did not have
support at 28 to 31 price level and MACD is turning DOWN.
Don't buy TSM unless it's less than 28.
dumping shares will sink your boat and make you lose your
treasure. Of course if you are a billionaire, capable to
consume around 500M US dollars TSMC stocks dumping from
Taiwan government (15M shares X 33 dollars) then just
buy as much as you want. :0)
I made money the first time.
The second I have
decided to follow
Dr.'s orders and hold the stock
since it seems to be so under valued.
I have had two
doses of this web site and I can tell you I'm
Here is where you can get some too if you want to try
TSMC is losing its advantages on tech and
Remembered at March of this year EE times with news
mentioned UMC successfully Xilinx's product name Virtex by
using .18um technology. At that time even at San Jose
International Airport has same Ad. post mentioned this
technology breakthrough. TSMC did not have .18um production
capability unitl May. Now UMC again proved its copper tech
is on the leading edge.
After UMC group
consolidated, it's bigger than TSMC. Following is the news from
EE Times at June 2 (www.eet.com).
United Microelectronics Corp. claims to be on the verge
of a 0.18-micron process using copper for the top
two layers of metal, a feat that would give it
momentary edge over Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.
UMC plans to offer 0.18-micron prototyping in copper
late this quarter, with general availability beginning
in the fourth quarter. That's a little later than
initially planned, but it has taken time to hone the copper
processes, said Fu-Tai Liou, senior vice president of the
TSMC expects to roll out a similar
process in September, with copper interconnect at the top
two metal layers, using 0.18-micron line widths.
Roger Fisher, senior
director of marketing for the
foundry's U.S. operations in San Jose, said TSMC's
all-copper chips are not yet ready for volume production.
If TSM always kept 20% difference between ADR and
local stock. Probably should wait for UMC ADR go public
and buy it in next year.
TSM divedend still not release yet. Eddychan:
apparently you did not read TSMC news carefully. June 11 is
the day TSM announced 23 percent stock dividend. The
local distribution date with respect to the upcoming
stock dividend is expected to be on or about August 12,
1999. Check TSM Div.day form Yahoo, you will know what
Now TSM ADR price is 80% higher
than local TSMC is absolutely right.
stock split on mid of August, sure the price will be 20
percent less. But the TSM ADR outstanding shares will
also increas 23 percent, from 1209.4M increasing to
1487.56M shares. More shares floating in the market will
create the sale force. Since most of the time when stock
get split investors will try to execrise some of
their stocks to ensure the "real money" in the pocket.
FUND MANAGERS ARE WINDOW DRESSING..;.
* It is
also worth noting that many mutual fund/portfolio
managers are embarking on their quarterly "window
dressing" exercise. This is the process where by
institutional investors adjust their holdings in an effort to
provide a positive
snapshot of their portfolios for
their quarterly reports.
MICHELLE, HERE IS JP MORGAN
STOCKPICKS YOU WANTED SMART CHOICE, FOLLOW INSTITUTION!
The premium on the US ADR is high
but less than 80%. If you recall TSMC in Taiwan
already gone ex-dividend issuing 23 shares for every 100.
Thus when accounting for this the premium you should
use NT$151.9. Which yields a price of USD$23.37, thus
a premium of a little less than 50%. TSM ADR will
go ex-dividend soon also.