I never claimed to be a genius, but it was nice
of you to acknowledge the fact.
If you are
unwilling to point out your tracking cycle ahead of time
that allows you to constantly reset the timing to
match your forecasted position. When you do not have
the vision to state your patterned cycle points then
you leave yourself infinite set points, how
convenient. A 5 year cycle is just that. There is no dispute
that today could start a new one just as I think 12/98
did. The position is not that there are cycles, or
what comprises them, that is obvious. It is where the
stated cycle is said to have started, the influencing
factors and the expected duration. In that analysis you
then place your investment to maximize your outcome.
You claim to be a seasoned investor, that may be
true, but your analysis and forecasting tools are
nascent. You say there are 5 year cycles, you liberally
detail the characteristics, influences and indicators
but yet you fall desperately short in putting a stake
in the ground on when your "5 Year Pig Cycle" began.
Or is it ending? Or is it coming? It is like me
calling myself an astronomer because I can predict with
great precision the sunrise and sunset. Oh well this
has been fun, but I cannot not have a battle of wits
with an unarmed man.
Mealtime is coming up so
I shall go back to "frying
P.S. Your CAPS KEY IS LOCKED and you need a dictionary
and a thesaurus.
why do i take the eford to explain something
simple to a `genuis` stock speculant who enounce
comments wich go right over our heads.
big -smart- guys on financial markets are acting
aprox 1 year ahead.
if i mention the 5 year cycle
don`t take it literally as exactly 5 years , and surely
do not ask for a end and begin point... How naive! A
cycle means up trend and down trend : so aprox 2 years
up and 2 years down.
the insane ride on up
last in the 1.5 years and recent share price relfects
the semiconductor industry situation over 1+ years.
If you consider that especialy tsm is very very
susceptible to these fluctuations: because they lease/rent
production capicity to others: ...can you end this sentence?
so if you think you `re smart and not too greedy
,take your profits. 600% aprox in 1year.?
better stick to frying pigs or bake cookies , i can see
this way over your leage
Have you overpaid? Isn't that the
question we all ask from time to time? The answer is a
definitive maybe. First you must Convert the currency and
ratios correctly for the ADR, Consider your position and
then lastly, Decide your situation.
The ADR deposit ratio is 1:5 (this means that every
"ADR" is backed by 5 shares of TSM
Current NT exchange is 1:30.7 (this means that for every
US dollar you get 30.7 NT dollars) NT stands for
Now for the practical
Current TSM share price on Taiwan exchange is about
NT$188, which is $6.12, based in the exchange
Current NYSE price of ADR's is $55.19.
on a ratios described above the "apples to apples"
comparison is $11.04 vs. $6.12 for a shares expressed in US
dollars or $338.92 vs. $188 expressed in NT dollars using
a 1:5 share ratio to normalize the shares to a one
for one comparison.
Are you a US citizen? A Taiwanese citizen? Do you
have access to the Taiwan exchange? Which exchange do
you have more confidence in? Do you have more
confidence in the company in which you are investing than
the exchange on which they are listed? All of these
questions and more are to be considered when deciding to
buy ADR�s or the actual stock.
ADR price is not a direct connection of the actual
�mother stock� price. The ADR is sort of a stock by
itself. It may reflect the ratio or it may float above or
below it based on investor and market trends respective
of the listed market.
Does paying $11 for a $6 dollar stock piss you off?
Can you actually buy it for $6? Or is it more
important to buy something that represents value to not
only you but hopefully for others as well? Isn�t that
the Stock Market philosophy? Is there a price
discrepancy? Why are the ADR�s trading at a supposed premium?
Perhaps it is the actual stock that is the laggard? Who
knows and basically who cares!
If you think it
will go up then buy in. If you think it will go down
then short, sell now or stay out. There is no mystery
other than what happens at the bell
I am "almost" 100% agree with you and that's
exactly what I posted earlier while TSM was at 35+-. I
think TSM is due for some down turn (profit taking,
correction, etc...) next few days. The only thing I am more
sure of (compare to your Step 3 Decide:)I am sure of
that TSM is a very solid company and it will go higher
in a long run (my prediction @ 70+ by year end
considering < 25% stock split/dividends and NO POLITICAL