September report was fiction, to put it mildly. Private estimates are much lower. Corn stocks and yields will be much lower than in the report. Dollar decline with QE3 will help reignite uptrend. The highs for CORN are still in the future, and it may be near $60.
If you didn't get in last may and if you didn't get out four weeks ago YOU MISSED A GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY. It was a no brainer almost devoid of any risk. The drought assured that corn prices were going to explode upward. It was easy, easy money. In short this stock is now out of gas.
Keep dreaming. A couple of things wrong with your analysis:
(1) CORN yields are highly variable regionally. Some areas have very good yields. Most farmers are rushing to harvest and get corn to market while the prices are so abnormally high. The farmers who wait too long will see prices fall to $7 or even $6 as competing farms beat them to the market. This urge to harvest early will result in a lot of corn becoming available soon, bringing prices down quite quickly.
(2) QE3 is only $40 billion of new money per month, not the $85 billion claimed in the news. They're continuing Operation Twist until December, which did not print any new money (only swapped short-term for long-term securities), and now they're adding a paltry $40 billion per month in MBS purchases. That's only a "half-QE." Even if it lasts forever, which of course it can't, it's not enough to paper over the global economic problems. The news outlets are pumping false information, and the true interpretation of QE3 will surface by next week and send the market right back down.
So altogether, it's foolish to expect corn to go up from here. Maybe we'll see higher prices next summer, but this is the top in corn for this season.
From: danielamermanDOTcom/articles/2012/QE3C.html (See Item #3)
The Federal Reserve has just announced that it would launch the so-called "QE3", or "Quantitative Easing Three" program. Key components are:
1) The creation of $40 billion a month out of thin air to purchase agency mortgage-backed securities at artificially low interest rates;
2) The continuation of Twist 2, and the shifting of Federal Reserve holdings of US Treasury Bonds into longer-term bonds;
3) Combined purchases of long-term securities between QE3 & Twist 2 of approximately $85 billion per month through the end of the year;
4) Quantitative easing without any pre-defined limit, meaning an open-ended commitment to keep purchasing securities at whatever level is judged necessary until the labor market improves "substantially";
5) The potential purchase of additional assets and the deployment of other policy tools as needed;
6) An extension of the 0.0% to 0.25% target range for the Fed Funds rate until at least mid 2015.
Who claimed $85B? All I ever heard is $40B, right from the start. Post a link (just use DOT and leave off the prefix). There has never been a QE that was open ended anyway as far as I know, so you're comparing apples to oranges.
I see it more as a manipulation of grains futures by TPTB for political reasons. They know that QE3 (ONLY $40B per month?! (LOL)) will be highly inflationary. Wait till you see the whites of their eyes, then flip your short to LONG. JMHO etc.
PS: You're also forgetting about the promise to print, also on an open ended basis, by ECB (Draghi).