First it goes from 31.20 to 32.00 in twenty minutes as the DOW went from -140 to -75, then it went from 32.00 to 31.00 in 20 minutes as the market went from -75 to -220 at the close. The volatility in the market has battered this stock. If and when earnings are broken this week, if and when the DOW has a volatile upward movement, +10% would be of no surprise.
From a techincal perspective, the price has recently dipped bellow the moving average, over a year strong, and if you ask me, it will correct itself the fist second it gets. The 5 day chart shows DSX falling 4 days straight and leveling off on Friday, despite the 220 point drop.
I like your analysis - I think it is dead on. Once the tape gets sane, the dry bulk carriers will start gaining.
But to add a random thought: I think it is very ironic that the strippers of america are bringing down the US economy and maybe the world economy. My good friend USED to do loans w/ various loan companies and she called the no doc loans "stripper loans" - she gave examples of good looking girls coming into her office w/ wads of cash wanting a loans - and of couse WAMU complied! Who can resist a pretty girl? Even the underwriters cant!!!!
Anyway just some of my twisted thoughts on the subject. Sex is the reason why humans developed intellegance....