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Allegheny Technologies Inc. Message Board

  • bominireal123 bominireal123 Jan 25, 2006 9:12 PM Flag

    You better sell Tie while you can


    Before Ati takes away even more of its market share share.

    Just passed Tie on 3 Month Chart and will soon pass Tie on 6 month chart.You better sell Tie now and buy ATI,one trick pony has run out of steam

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    • I don't worry about this ATI vs TIE. I own both so I don't care which one will do better. But, I believe TIE has more up side than ATI. ATI's lower PE is due to the fact that its earnings are diluted with the slower growth earnings of its other specialty metals. If ATI was an all titanium play they would have a higher PE as well because they would be growing earnings at an accelerated clip.

      ATI has a forward PE of 17 vs. TIE�s forward PE of 20.5. TIE's earnings growth should out pace ATI's earning growth by more than the 20.5/17.0 ratio since they are 100% titanium. I think it�s clear that TIE is on a faster earnings growth trajectory because of the metal mix. This small difference in forward PEs is meaningless considering the large differences in earnings growth potential.

      But, I will not be disappointed in my ATI profits. A little diversification is always good. After all, it�s helped me a lot to own ATI in the last two months.

    • What kind of fool are you? ATI has done well, but the bulk of its growth has been in specialty metals, primarily titanium!! The "one trick pony" at TIE will continue to outperform ATI over the long haul while the aerospace boom continues. I hold posistions in both companies, but am definitely overweight TIE! A good move might be to take profit here and roll it into TIE, I am considering just that. I understand your attachment to ATI, I profited the last 9 months here too, but what on earth makes you think that TIE isn't going to profit from the very source of ATI's growth? I could care less what you do with your gains, but it really bothers me when you slam another company that stands to gain from the very source of your growth! Congrats to all on our good day here!

      • 1 Reply to varno13
      • I am also invested in Ati stock which as far as I know produces more steel products than titanium. Nevertheless, I am very happy with its 4th quarter 2005 performance and wish it would continue well into the future.

        However, the bulk of my titanium money is in Tie, a pure play in a white hot sector that is experiencing shortages and price run-up's. I don't much care about pure steel play which ATI admittedly is not, otherwise I would have invested in PKX or Mittel, two companies which have much lower PE's than ATI.

        Tie is presently in consolidation mode that is why the stock is trading at a narrow range, between 69 and 72, but not going down below 69. However, as earnings approaches, we expect the stock price to finally break out from its present range. Many posters in the Tie board, which analyzes the stock to no end, predict Tie guidance is very understated, and in the end the numbers will be much higher than expected.

        In a way, Tie benefitted from ATI's excellent performance because both are in the same Ti sector, although Tie is much more so. When Tie's good earnings numbers come out, I suspect ATI will benefit from it as well. Frankly, I think I am presently in a win-win situation.

        The Tie board is a bit f

    • bominireal123,

      Nice chart.

      If the titanium boom has this kind of effect on a "diversified" company, just think what the effect will be on a "pure play" titanium company? Can you say "buying Timet is like printing money"?

      The present 2006 earnings estimate for Timet of $3.51 is shy by at least 50% of what Timet will actually earn in 2006.

      Place your bets.



      bominireal123 said,

      "Subj: You better sell Tie while you can
      By: bominireal123
      Date: 01/25/06 09:12 pm

      Before Ati takes away even more of its market share share.

      Just passed Tie on 3 Month Chart and will soon pass Tie on 6 month chart.You better sell Tie now and buy ATI,one trick pony has run out of steam"

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