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Allegheny Technologies Inc. Message Board

  • raybans2 raybans2 Jan 24, 2007 9:24 AM Flag

    I know why ATI is down

    Ti average mill prices are down from $36.09/lb to $33.57/lb. This is the titanium investor's worst nightmare. The first sign of titanium price weakness is what we all feared. I think it's time to consider a switch from long to short unless you like to lose money. At least consider a position on the side lines. This is terrible news.

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    • Raybans, Do you know what the normal daily price fluctuation is? While this is an 8% drop today is it a significant or demand driven drop. I assume demand would drive this but have seen no news that would indicate an industry wide reduction in demand.

      • 1 Reply to skiperclif
      • It may not be as bad as it initially looks. I would suspect that someone will ask Pat Hassey about it during the CC. Let�s see how he answers it. It is definitely the most important issue to be concerned about as a weakness in titanium prices mark the beginning of the end. However, it is possible that it is a temporary demand glitch possibly caused by buyers timing their buys in anticipation of lower prices. But it is definitely, in my mind, the most important piece of information that was given in this report and it should be a concern. With titanium prices being about 3 times their historical norms due to a shortage of titanium which allows titanium companies to obtain unsustainably high margins, the possibility of titanium weakness and the havoc it can play on future quarter earnings should be the ATI investor's biggest concern. Whether this weakness is the canary in the mine of just a glitch is yet to be determined. If I owned ATI I think I would consider hedging my position.

    • thanks for goodwill. look at this:
      Ti average mill prices are down from $36.09/lb to $33.57/lb
      who should I believe if you were me?

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