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Derma Sciences Inc. Message Board

  • thefattlady thefattlady Aug 13, 2013 9:51 AM Flag

    OSIR just changed the game of foot ulcer treatment. This stock is DEAD

    Read OSIR's press release from this morning.

    Grafix OSIR's stem cell treatment for diabetic foot ulcers showed OVERWHELMING efficacy.

    They stopped the trial early.

    It doesn't matter what happens with DSC127 in the Phase III trial, the game has absolutely changed.
    COLUMBIA, Md.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--August 13, 2013--

    Osiris Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: OSIR), reported today that its
    multi-center, randomized, controlled clinical trial comparing the safety and
    effectiveness of Grafix(R) to standard of care in patients with chronic
    diabetic foot ulcers had met the pre-specified stopping rules for
    overwhelming efficacy as determined by the data monitoring committee during
    a planned interim analysis. For the primary endpoint, 62% of patients
    receiving Grafix had complete wound closure compared to only 21% (p

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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    • OSIR:
      Revenues: 11,804,000 USD (Full year 2012)
      Loss: 11,151,000 USD (Full year 2012)
      Total Assets: 41,464,000 USD (31.12.2012)
      Total Liabilities: 5,574,000 USD (31.12.2012)
      Total Stockholder Equity: 35,890,000 USD (31.12.2012)

      Revenues: 72,648,000 USD (Full year 2012)
      Loss: 14,468,000 USD (Full year 2012)
      Total Assets: 100,203,000 USD (31.12.2012)
      Total Liabilities: 9,764,000 USD (31.12.2012)
      Total Stockholder Equity: 90,438,000 USD (31.12.2012)
      I guess the jury is still out which company will perform better over the coming years. DSCI share price went from USD 5 to 12.5 USD when DSC127 results for phase 2 were published, and OSIR went up a similar percentage on their latest trial results last week.

      DSCI has a well growing AWC business (apart from the traditional wound care products), with annual growth rates above 30%, even without DSC127 they will become a very profitable company.

      As for OSIR, I am wondering if stem cell treatment will ever be applied to the masses. It might be the perfect solution of a “last attempt treatment” before amputation, but will all insurance companies pay for it? Does anyone know that the treatment cost for Grafix is? I would assume it is far more expensive than DSC127 and more difficult to produce in big quantities, but I don’t know.

    • OSIR:
      From conference transcript, 2013-08-13:
      “…they were given care and what we were looking to do in this point was to make sure that the patients truly had a chronic wound so these patients were treated and evaluated over a one week period”.

      Press Release Source: Derma Sciences, Inc. On Wednesday May 25, 2011, 7:00 am EDT
      “After 14 days of best standard-of-care to evaluate ulcer healing and ensure the wounds were chronic, those patients randomized into the study received….”

      OSIR only treated for 1 week with standard care, while DSCI treated for 2 weeks to determine chronic wounds. Some of the wounds in the OSIR trial might not have been chronically after all, given the test a bias.
      From conference transcript, 2013-08-13:
      “So they were then switched and given 12 weeks of Grafix and…”

      Press Release Source: Derma Sciences, Inc. On Wednesday May 25, 2011, 7:00 am EDT
      “…those patients randomized into the study received four weeks of active treatment”

      OSIR treated for 12 weeks, while DSCI only treated for 4 weeks.
      What does OSIR mean by “standard of care”? I guess it is the same as DSCI means with placebo, otherwise why would the wound closure control group of OSIR’s test (21% closure only) be lower than the control group in DSCI’s test (33-38% closure only).
      DSC127, Phase 2 trial results:
      65% closure at 12 weeks (Odds Ratio Analysis 300%),
      85% closure at 24 weeks (Odds Ratio Analysis 520%),

      OSIR, Grafix trial:
      Grafix significantly improved closure rates 62% versus 21%. Importantly this is a 191% relative improvement over standard of care.
      Company size:
      OSIR: As of December 31, 2012, our headcount was 59 full-time and 5 part-time employees.

      DSCI: We had 237 full-time and seven part-time employees at December 31, 2012. Of these employees, 118 are located in the U.S., 77 in Canada, 41 in China and eight in Europe.

    • The results between DSCI's PHII and OSIR's trial results from today are pretty similar. However both trials involved very small numbers of patients. What will happen to DSCI is far from predetermined.

      • 1 Reply to jdmunch
      • Results not even close. Go read the Aug 13 press release.

        DSC127 was compared to placebo, i.e. and and showed improvement. Not even statistical significance because of small trial size with VERY subjective analysis.

        Grafix went head to head agains the current treatments, NOT PLACEBO and they BLEW IT OUT OF THE WATER with overwheming statistical significance and a P-value less than 0.0001.

        DSC127 not even in the same league.

        Stem cell treatment is only effective for certain things. DFU's is CLEARLY one where it will own the market.

        Add the that the fact that Grafix will beat DSC127 to market by 1-2 years and ..... this stock is dead.

        Everything else the company sells is low margin stuff.

        Sentiment: Strong Sell

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