FyI, I no longer hold NNBR but wanted to run this past the good people who post here.
The last real strong run up of the DOW ended on November 17th at 10,437. Next week will mark a month hovering under 10,500. here's a link to a chart of the DOW showing this.
If the DOW next week stays under 10,500 is it out of gas???
When the TV talking heads start to discuss this, I think we are in for a big tumble down.
In my humble opinion the markets are ready for a much needed correction which would be very healthy. Remember, this run is a bull run within a BEAR market!!! This BEAR might last for another several years. As you may be aware, how it acts along the 200 day MA is important.
NN did hold its own today on light trade. That means it is bullish/neutral tone. I suspect this stock will drip backwards over the comming weeks, but over the long run, the bias is upward. At this point, no one panicing.
They are not artifical. Those rates are real today compliments of the fed, which sure makes for a healthy rebound for the big banks!!! Nice when you can borrow for next to nothing and give a loan to "bubba" at 10% for that new F-150. Sure makes for a nice spread if you are in that kind of business. Bankers were real drunk though and some got taken to the woodshed on some of their loans.
Most all government statements are ridiculous. All propoganda to get you to go spend spend spend like all the other fools. The government needs you to spend spend spend.
All that said I do not think the politicians have the balls to quit spending. Cause it will hurt in the short term, but should make us stronger in the long term. It is against politicians personalities as the short term hit will hurt there reelection. They live like hogs off us.
Nancy "Commi" Pelosi creates more carbon emmissions on one flight to California from Washington than all of us on this board do in a year combined. Yet, they want us as consumers to pay for it. Look at the Copenhagen circus. All the suppossed enivormentalists concerned about earth flew there. Had they been at home working they would not remotely caused the same amount of CO2 emmissions. Anyways, just fools. I only saw one who actually rode his bike there.
Therefore the the true interest rate rise would come from someone like China who would quit buying treasuries aka demanding a greater return higher interest rate. But, China likes us being in debt to them. Helps keep their currency low and gives them leverage over us.
Bottom line is who knows when? But it will happen sooner or later as interest rates only have one direction to go. UP! And when they start going up I look for a 10-20% correction overall.
Great discussions everyone!!
Is the market wobbling under 10,500 since it's the end of the year and things are on pause or what???
One thing that bothers me is the statements of an economic recovery but the interest rates are at all time lows. How do we have a healthy (recovering) economy with "unhealthy" artificial interest rates???
That's like saying a heroin addict on methadone is healthy and doing just fine.....
Livin: Great Call on GSX! Nice bump! Looks like XOM acquisition helped Natural Gas stocks. I like seeing the M&A activity. Great sign in my opinion for the overall economy. Strong get stronger and the weak go bye-bye. I wish we saw more of that.
Just got back from the Dominican Republic. Sure, Western Hemisphere and close to the US$. They were happy to take and trade my dollars everywhere even in non-tourist towns inland. Still better than holding any Peso.
Market - Well, obviously the fed is hell bent on spending our way out of this. Filling/bridging the void or gap. I personally disagree, but with those macro $$ amounts it has to help big picture whether you agree or not. I would expect continued pressure during election year as Livin stated.
I see the biggest risk, don't know when, but as soon as interest rates rise this thing will tank in my opinion. I don't see them rising until unemployment gets under control. Until they rise I feel like we will still be in a deflationary period with most assets. Money normally goes to stocks, bonds, or RE which is another form of a bond for rich folks. Stocks have been hot. Some bonds performed well. RE is cold. US$ has been weak. Short term yields have been horrible. So people are hunting.
That said I am still hunting, but I have a stop following all positions. Not blind hunting with a buy and hold philosphy as I still feel many valuations are ridiculous, but I personally don't have much exposure to those. I have probably taken my capital out of those and have house money playing.
So, I don't know when, but as interest rate rises the stock markets overall will be humbled in my opinion. Especially with all the money in the baby boomer generation. Most should be in more fixed income type securites anyhow. Just right now they get jack on their money. Hope Gen X or others, probably foreigns have enought to follow behind. Probably not therefore I think we will be like Japan for a while. I like them as a case study. Kind of Zombies for a while. No growth driver and our government is out of control making us more and more of a debtor nation everyday!
Another reason that the market is going up is that there is a huge amount of cash on the sidelines yet. That cash is earning about 0% interest and is trickling into the markets in search or a higher return.
Higher interests rates will kill this rally if nothing else will. Will that happen? Expect the unexpected.
jwelt - I do not have the time to give a full answer but one of the things that couldhave given the 65% is that it was well oversold on the fear or a depression in the press. With time that boat was set right and the market corrected up a large percent of the 65%.
Remember in an election year if the press is trying to make the economy look bad they will cause a sell off that could last months. That contributed to the downside which we have since bounced back from.
Also do not hesitate to ask what you will of this board. We are talk stock, specifically NNBR but we talk other stock and markets as well.
If people object to this on this board we can move or start a private board but till then ask away.
I am in agreement with those who think the market is going to take a plunge. Don't know when. I am one who believes that our fearless leader is taking the bus into the ditch with his big government agenda. We are going to have the economy pumped up for a while with all of the money that is being spent and that could keep the market up for a while. After that a crash is inevitable. If I knew when, I would'nt still be in the cold, miserable north.
Agreed on the tumble down.
I bought FAZ which is a triple down ETF. It goes inversely to the market X3. A lot of people day trade it but I am in at $18.53 and will hold waiting for a big fall. When will that happen????? No idea but this market now to me is nothing but a big gas bag ready to pop.....