The CC this time and the number should be very interesting. If the numbers have dipped only slightly and less than announced at the last CC we are in great shape. If not we can see the pps solidify or deteriorate some.
Where do I think it is going? I believe that the conservative management takes the formula for free cashflow projection and moves it also to the more conservative side. They do not announce numbers really as to what they think the next few quarters will be but speak in generalities like the next two quarters may be less than the first two quarters of the year, and they do not support that with solid project metrics. I believe that if there is a 50-50 chance of them dropping some then they will say that the second half does not look as good as the first half. Thus where we are today.
For me I have been looking at the deals being made on car sales and in new projects in autos. They are all doing well. Trucks not bad but not really on fire at least in the little time I have take to look at them. But then there is Cat. They are still assembling and selling so things can not be that bad.
Cost of steel. Okay. Refinancing, that is a good thing and is cheaper monies for now and for the next few years. Prudent management borrows money or sets up borrowing vehicles not when they need it but when the borrowing rates are cheap and they lock that cheap rate up for as long as they can. This allows the company to buildout new projects in a rising economy next year with the cheap borrowing rates of this year so the borrowing is at a discount.
You all know this so I am preaching again to the choir, but we all need to be reminded the NN did not refinance just for current debt but to secure cheap money for new implementations that will come in the future. Very smart!
I look for a solid report with good but not the best in the world numbers. There will be a net profit with building shareholder equity and some paying down of debt and all the other good things the company is good at.
We should be going up. Estimates last year were that we would come into this year between 9 and 11. We might do the same or better this year. Or better said $9 per share if Whirlaway id close to profitable, $12 if there is profit in Whirlaway, and I will not say what the pps will be if they reinstitute the dividend.
BTW- I hope the dividend does not come in too early. I also like the idea of minimizing any company debt both long and short term. Then borrow cheap as needed.
Sorry to ramble. I am in hopes that we are nearing another Christmas moment.