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Thoratec Corporation Message Board

  • professor4everyone professor4everyone Oct 11, 2003 9:18 AM Flag

    THOR buyout at $25 SOON - the REASON

    I think that THOR management will follow through on a promise to SHOP THOR if they can't create significant value. I think $25/S will be the price � and soon. Here is why:

    1- THOR has about $2/Share in short term investments and no debt.

    2- THOR will continue to generate cash earnings and add to the above.

    3- The continued breakdowns is a disappointment, but will act as the driver for a buyout. The reasons are:

    a) the enhanced-inflow-valve to be approved in this quarter and will solve a significant set of problems as will the enhanced-bearings. Both of these solutions will be in place by Q1 2004 and Q3 2004 respectively. The solution to those problems will be a positive for an acquirer. Don�t forget that THOR�s hiring binge is only months old and the FDA must approve fixes.This takes time. That is why we are still seeing that many problems. But don�t forget that 2 deaths/quarter on 250 HMxves /per quarter represents 0.8 % vs 17% death rate for REMATCH � a HUGE improvement.

    b) Yes, there are numerous smaller problems, but these also will be solved by the significant hiring of Quality Assurance and High Tech individuals as evidenced. This effort by THOR which is now in place will also be a positive for an acquirer.

    3- The only other PULSATILE competitor, the Novacor, still has serious STROKE problems with their FINAL SOLUTION. The enhanced e-ptfe is the end of the line. Here is Bryden's August NOVACOR STROKE statement which I will pick to pieces to back-up what I claim:


    �During the quarter, evidence continued to build that the incidence of
    stroke is substantially reduced when the ePTFE inflow conduit is used with Novacor LVAS implants. As at July 15, 2003, a total of 137 implants had used the ePTFE conduit in the U.S., Europe and Canada with incidence of stroke of 10.9%, of which 3.6% was attributed to specific causes unrelated to the device.�

    b)In REMATCH, the stroke rate was 7%. This number was for ALL strokes REGARDLESS of their origin.

    c) We all know that there would have been a certain number of STROKES for CHF patients SOLELY because of their condition. That is where Bryden�s 3.6% came from. So if we SUBTRACT 3.6% from the HEARTMATE REMATCH 7% strokes, the HEARTMATE strokes are 7% - 3.6% = 3.4% STROKE rate.

    d) Therefore the NOVACOR (7.3%) has MORE THAN DOUBLE the HEARTMATE. The exact multiplier is:

    7.3/3.4 = 2.15

    e) However, the MULTIPLIER IS IN REALITY even GREATER since the average AGE of the NOVACOR patients are in their 40s as compared to the average REMATCH AGE of about 58. The YOUNGER patients exhibit much LESS STROKES.

    f) THEREFORE, I would estimate that:

    "The Novacor STROKE rate is about QUADRUPLE the Heartmate.

    g) The NOVACOR STROKE calculations is one of the reasons that the FDA will need much longer to evaluate

    h) Moreover, The two papers I posted concerning the NOVACOR THROMBOEMBOLIC events confirm their high stroke rate..

    i) We can conclude from this that THOR will eventually improve the HMxve MECHANICAL DURABILITY while WHRT is STUCK with a CLOT machine. This makes the NOVACOR a non-competitor in the very near future and another positive for an acquirer.

    4- I think a $25 bid is a good possibility and it will happen soon.

    5- OK let the flames begin with personal attacks on me rather than any substance.

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