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Thoratec Corp. Message Board

  • seemefish seemefish Oct 21, 2003 12:22 PM Flag

    any guesses?

    anybody got a guess as to what happens later?

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    • We all require LVAD's from all this stress, and the stock goes up because of increased product demand.

      • 1 Reply to cavman43
      • Cav,
        That is the most sensible thing I've read here in quite a while!

        What happens on the conference call? One might hope that management would stress the advantage of having a monopoly on the only approved product that saves lives in a very large market and make optimistic estimates as to how fast this product will ramp up. That would get the analysts excited and the stock would take off.

        More likely, the company will be very cautious (too cautious) and leave it to the analysts to guess that the numbers could be much higher than those currently out there. Unfortunately, the analysts have not been inclined to see the big picture and will probably mirror whatever conservative numbers management throws out there.

        So, if as a report today suggested, the guidance is for 300 to 400 units in the first year, that may not get people excited. If one looks out a few years and can envision 2,000 or 5,000 incremental units (the company is only doing 1,400 now) that spells BIG growth. Whether people will wait to see it or anticipate it, remains to be seen.

        As a reality check, there are 130 heart centers and 60 of them are "eligible" according to CMS right from the start. To be "eligible" to do this procedure, these centers had to have done 15 of these procedures over the past 2 1/2 years -- or about at a rate of 5 or 6 per year.

        Now, what no one has even mentioned, if (low end) 5 per year is the minimum that one must have done to be in the mix, and there are 60 centers, doing this MINIMUM would be 300 units -- or the amount analysts are estimating.

        What about the centers who will do more than the minimum? What about the survey that said in Year 2 centers, on average, could do 3 procedures per month? On the 60 centers (shouldn't it be 70 or 80 centers by then?) that would be over 2,000 units that second year.

        There are a lot of variables at the moment and people -- as of yet -- do not seem willing to look ahead. Those that do however, in the long run, should be rewarded.

 
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