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DUSA Pharmaceuticals Inc. Message Board

  • crazyworld4u crazyworld4u Aug 2, 2011 10:27 AM Flag

    It was a good opportunity....

    to buy BACK a nice block.

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    • Rincon - it's not an issue of different numbers (there is only one analyst) but different contractors. MSN's fundamentals are provided by Thompson Reuters while Yahoo's numbers come from Capital IQ.

      Nobody knows for sure where this thing will bottom, one thing for sure, however, is DUSA has been underperforming the S&P, Nasdaq and Dow for the past 3 months and I would expect that pattern to continue, baring earth-shaking news one way or the other. My guess right now is that the major indexes will tend to go down rather than up for the near to medium term.

      http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=DUSA+Interactive#chart2:symbol=dusa;range=3m;compare=^dji+^ixic+^gspc;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

      Good luck to the DUSA longs - I agree it is a decent hold at this point despite the economic storm clouds.

    • <<< No, in fact they both use GAAP numbers - MSN was just exceedingly slow in updating. >>>

      Yahoo shows estimated 2011 EPS was 17 cents 60 days ago and 14 cents 30 days ago, where it is today.

      http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=DUSA+Analyst+Estimates

      MSN shows estimated 2011 EPS was 25 cents 60 and 30 days ago and 14 cents 7 days ago, where it is today.

      http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/earnings-estimates?symbol=dusa

      I agree, there appears to be an update timing issue. However, 60 days ago they had different estimates (17 vs. 25 cents) which implies to me that they may be using different numbers at that time.

    • "<<< The answer to this mystery lies in GAAP vs NON-GAAP earnings! >>>

      I forgot to add to my previous reply that MSN uses non-GAAP numbers, whereas Yahoo doesn't. In my view, this makes things a lot clearer and useful:

      http://investing.money.msn.com/investmen..."

      -----------------------------------------------------
      No, in fact they both use GAAP numbers - MSN was just exceedingly slow in updating. The MSN site now shows .14 (down from .25) as the analyst's projected earnings for 2011. The number (.45) for 2012 remains unchanged but, in my opinion, highly unreliable.

    • <<< The answer to this mystery lies in GAAP vs NON-GAAP earnings! >>>

      I forgot to add to my previous reply that MSN uses non-GAAP numbers, whereas Yahoo doesn't. In my view, this makes things a lot clearer and useful:

      http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/earnings-estimates?symbol=dusa

      The stock will move based on results, whether expressed in GAAP or non-GAAP terms. For those that believe the top line will continue to grow strongly, then this should translate to continued very strong growth in cash flow and profits. Management guided to 20 to 25% top-line organic growth, far outpacing the general economy and most other firms. Based on management's comments, the clinical expenses should be $2 million over the next 4 to 6 quarters, or perhaps a penny a share per quarter, so the bottom line should still look good if the growth comes through. And I still think the seasonally strong Q4 will be a very good one, especially if those added to the salesforce early this year are up to speed by then.

    • <<< I think it tanked because of the abysmal stock market conditions. >>>

      I agree, plus with DUSA's huge move up it was extra ripe for some profit taking, regardless of news.

      Regarding health care reform risks for DUSA and related firms, short term, gridlock is probably good. 2012 elections may change that, but for now, I think everything is still up in the air:

      "Judge Hall (a Bill Clinton nominee) and Judge Dubina (a George H.W. Bush nominee) have delivered one of the most persuasive and tightly reasoned deconstructions of the mandate's supposed constitutional logic, though of course the fate of the mandate lies with the Supreme Court. The new split among the appellate circuits ensures that one case or another will land in Washington—perhaps as soon as next spring."

      http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903918104576504413479168124.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEADTop

    • "I think it tanked because of the only 12% Kerastick unit growth."

      Personally, and honestly, I think it tanked because of the abysmal stock market conditions. Any stock not beating estimates or missing by even one penney gets creamed - in a market like this. If we were in a bull market I doubt it would have dropped at all. ANY excuse to divebomb a stock at present. Pick them off one at a time until they all line up back at the starting gate for the next bull market.

    • >>Is it clear now why the stock tanked after the earning report?<<

      I think it tanked because of the only 12% Kerastick unit growth.

      By the way, I'm okay with non-GAAP, but I just take the net income and divide it by a "fully, fully" diluted sharecount which is inclusive of all the options, whether or not they've vested or are (yet) in the money (as the presumption for a sale of the company would be that they would then vest, and thus an acquirer would adjust its purchase price accordingly).

    • "The .25 and .45 estimates for 2011 and 2012 are NON-GAAP earnings!"

      Since the dot-com bust, the SEC has required corporate CFOs as well as certified stock analysts to report/estimate financials based on generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) to avoid the dodgy non-GAAP numbers that were previously used by many unprofitable startup companies that severely mislead investors.

      The difference between DUSAs GAAP and non-GAAP earning is due to 3 items: the value of warrants, share-based compensation, and the tiny payout of $9,000 to Sirus shareholders.

      GAAP considers the $3,064,370 increased value of warrants as a liability because if they were redeemed for cash, DUSA would have to pony up the money; if redeemed for stock, DUSA would have to issue the new shares, thus diluting the value of all others. Remarkably, DUSA's non-GAAP calculation counts the $3,064,370 as an asset!

      The share-based compensation of $571,621 is even more interesting. GAAP counts this money (the overly generous stock options given to execs and board members) rightfully as operating costs. DUSA's non-GAAP accounting credits this money as a gain of assets! Think about this for a minute - if DUSA handed out much more money like this, the non-GAAP earnings per share would increase! If they paid all of their employees (secretaries, clerks, etc.) in stock, the non-GAAP earnings per share would become enormous.

      I think the point that DUSA is trying to make is that if only they didn't have the warrants obligation and they didn't dole out generous stock options to their executives, they would have earned the ordinary common stock holder, like you, 16 cents in the first 2 quarters.

      By the way, now that I look carefully at the numbers, if it weren't for the $750,000 Nicomide sale (note that they made sure the cash was credited as received on the very last day of the second quarter!) they would have reported a GAAP one cent loss rather than a 2 cent gain for the first 6 months of the year.

      Is it clear now why the stock tanked after the earning report?

    • "the medicare cut would not be to beneficiaries but rather reimbursements to insurers. If this in fact came to pass, how might this affect DUSA's levulan sales margin, or sales in general???"

      If the joint committee can not agree, there would be an automatic medicare cut of 2% to providers.

      Likely, DUSA could easily survive a 2% cut.

    • "I still don't understand how .02+.00+.15=.25"

      The answer to this mystery lies in GAAP vs NON-GAAP earnings!

      The .25 and .45 estimates for 2011 and 2012 are NON-GAAP earnings!

      Your cited .02+.00+.15 are GAAP, which includes deductions such as "stock based compensation!"

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