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DUSA Pharmaceuticals Inc. Message Board

  • dusa1957 dusa1957 Sep 19, 2011 5:21 PM Flag

    Is it going to fill the gap to 3.2?

    If so, whoever sells to make that happen is an IDIOT.

    A pps of 3.2 will produce a TRAILING pe of about 20. We can argue what FORWARD earnings are, but I think it's pretty clear they will be higher than trailing earnings.

    For a company like DUSA, with 20%+ growth in revs and 80% margins, this would be an incredible bargain.

    I'm buying all the way down, if that's the way the market maker wants it. Each dime down, I buy double to amount of my previous buy.
    I'm ready to keep this up all the way down to 1.0 ... it just keeps getting better the lower this go.

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    • It's looking like the BOTTOM was in at 3.32, that counts as filling the gap to 3.2

      Now my strategy changes ... I bought every dime down to the bottom of the gap, double the volume each dime down, but now I'm willing to buy MORE and HIGHER than my previous lowest buys, now that I'm convinced the bottom is in. I don't want to pay current price, but I'm willing to pay as much as 3.7 now.

      As earnings date approaches, FEAR of a good report will grab hold of any shorts and the market maker, meaning the price will climb. This appears to be happening earlier than I expected, but that's fine. And, all indications are that earnings will be easily beat as we know about 6 cents of added one-time earnings will be coming in.

    • <<< Now back to watching my brain shrink. >>>

      Are you sure you can still see it?<G>

      "brains have shrunk about 150 cubic centimeters, off a mean of about 1,350. That's roughly 10 percent... As to why is it shrinking, perhaps in big societies, as opposed to hunter-gatherer lifestyles, we can rely on other people for more things, can specialize our behavior to a greater extent, and maybe not need our brains as much"

      http://www.livescience.com/7971-humans-evolving-brains-shrink.html

      * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

      I could while away the hours, conferrin' with the flowers
      Consultin' with the rain.

      And my head I'd be scratchin' while
      my thoughts were busy hatchin'
      If I only had a brain.

      I'd unravel every riddle for any individ'le,
      In trouble or in pain.

      With the thoughts you'll be thinkin'
      you could be another Lincoln
      If you only had a brain.

      Oh, I could tell you why The ocean's near the shore.

      I could think of things I never thunk before.

      And then I'd sit, and think some more.

      I would not be just a nothin' my head all full of stuffin'
      My heart all full of pain.

      I would dance and be merry, life would be a ding-a-derry,
      If I only had a brain.

    • Rincon/Adamo:
      Thanks for the entertainment tonight!

      Re DUSA:
      One nice thing DUSA has going for it is NO EUROPE exposure! Never thought I would think that was great.

      Now back to watching my brain shrink.

    • We have spoken for many years and have owned the same stocks and both have gone through some tough times with these stocks.We got rewarded ad that was nice but with Dusa I find it hard to understand how a PPS losing 40% is a good thing.Yes only 10% of market but the main reason for the profit has been raising prices with minimal growth.I realize the first 3 years or so it was hard because medical coverage was poor but not now.Competition will always be there and again having to hold money without reward for now another 18-24 months seems wrong.What do you think?Adamo

      • 4 Replies to adamo60
      • Hey Adamo,

        I see you posted this on the INSV board over on IV today:

        "I have added nicely at 3.70-3.75 with Dusa as I believe this stock has benn crushed without a reason other than a bad market."

        You seemed very bearish last week, so I guess my sunny optimism changed your mind!<G> As I've posted before, I believe this will be a very nice trade from here into 1H12 with expected news of strong seasonal Q4 results.

      • <<< how a PPS losing 40% is a good thing >>>

        Who said any decline is good, Adamo? Not me. But nearly everyone knows stocks do not go up in a straight line. This is especially true for a few hot stocks like DUSA that are up +250% in less than 3 years since the end of 2008. Perhaps you are just mad that you did not sell at the highs or bought more at higher levels, but that has no bearing on whether DUSA is growing its top & bottom lines.

        <<< only 10% of market but the main reason for the profit has been raising prices with minimal growth >>>

        Adamo, do you really think price increases have contributed more to DUSA's growth than higher unit sales? Of course hiking the price has helped. But if you are claiming that DUSA's operating income results primarily from price hikes rather than volume growth, then you would be wrong.

        <<< I realize the first 3 years or so it was hard because medical coverage was poor but not now >>>

        It took more than 3 years post-approval for reimbursements to rise to economically attractive levels for the doctors. Only in recent years has this been the case, and DUSA's recent growth and profitability corresponds to this.

        <<< Competition will always be there and again having to hold money without reward for now another 18-24 months seems wrong >>>

        I know you're kidding about investing in DUSA "without reward for now another 18-24 months" because DUSA is up +102% in the last 18 months and +239% in the last 24 months! Who would seriously complain about about that?

        Adamo, I get that you are disappointed that the stock has traded off the highs. But answer this: What about DUSA's fundamentals or growth or competition has changed since it traded over $6 recently? Nothing. DUSA's top & bottom line growth are strong and are expected to remain so. So why complain about growth now when in fact DUSA is growing far faster than most firms out there?

      • "...main reason for the profit has been raising prices with minimal growth"

        WRONG.

        Prices have been raised very little, growth has been 20%+ in revenues consistently. The fact that DUSA can raise prices is very encouraging, it confirms there is no competition for what they offer and that the market wants their product enough for them to be able to raise prices and STILL have
        20%+ revenue growth. Margins are 80% on kerastick, growth is over 20% ... this is a wonderful stock with explosive upside potential.

      • "...main reason for the profit has been raising prices with minimal growth"

        WRONG.

        Prices have been raised very little, growth has been 20%+ in revenues consistently. The fact that DUSA can raise prices is very encouraging, it confirms there is no competition for what they offer and that the market wants their product enough for them to be able to raise prices and STILL have
        20%+ revenue growth. Margins are 80% on kerastick, growth is over 20% ... this is a wonderful stock with explosive upside potential.

    • It's starting to look like it might have bottomed, which doesn't make me happy as I've not yet bought all I want, and I really want to buy some lower. So, if you are of a mind to short this, please do so. I really wanted to buy some in the low 3's.

    • I still think that the market maker will try to dribble this down to 3.2 before the next earnings report at the beginning of November. My prediction is that it will bottom just before the next earnings report, and that fear of a good earnings report will cause large buying a day or a few days before the actaul earnings report.

      We already know that earnings will be at least 5 cents more than the estimate just due to the advance payment coming. So, my prediction is it will gap up nicely following the earnings report. The nice thing is that the quarter after this one is the best of the year, so I expect early next year will look sweet for this stock.

    • The daily price action on this stock is classic accumulation. The market maker dribbles it down on light volume and then, as at the end of the day today, it rockets upward as any paniced sellers shares are bought. Another way I can tell it's being accumulated is that, whenever I put in an order to buy, "someone" steps in front of my bid to buy. I put in an order to buy at 3.58 today but sure enough someone stepped in front of my order to keep me from getting any.

    • Now, it may be entirely possible for this to go under 3 when you consider that it started the year at 2.5

      The DIFFERENCE is that revenues and earnings have CONTINUED to grow since the beginning of the year. And all signs are that they will continue to grow.

 

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