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DUSA Pharmaceuticals Inc. Message Board

  • dantal2010 dantal2010 Nov 15, 2011 5:25 AM Flag

    Future Growth!

    DUSA’s live third quarter 2011 financial results Webcast

    Clearly we can anticipate future growth.

    They sold double amount of BLU-U Blue Light Photodynamic Therapy Illuminators this year and since their business model is razor-razorblade, their entire revenues are from the Levulan Sticks.

    Appears that they decided to concentrate on the US Market which is a very smart move.

    Management's actions clearly shows they are well-aware of the company's growth and taking all the right measures to insure the company's future immediate growth.

    Are they setting the company for a premium sale?

    Sure looks that way. Company's status almost seems to good to be true.

    It's a perfect business with annual phenomenal growth, lots of cash, no debts, no leverage, great business-model.

    I got to admit, this is the first time i cannot find any weaknesses in the company's business-model and usually there's always something wrong.

    They should be trading at 10$ not 3$!


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    • <<< I'm significantly less bullish than I was before Doman starting talking about "finding something to buy." >>>

      You know I understand your concerns - we've debated these issues for quite some time now. The near-term risks are clear: additional clinical expenses, possible acquisition and possible slowing of Levulan unit growth. Now let me spin it the other way!

      Doman cited doctors drawing down inventory for some of the Q3 weakness. If correct, then this may be reversed in Q4. He also said the new sales adds were on board by March and would take 6 months to get up to speed. This means they should be contributing in Q4. He also mentioned they raised prices twice last year, which impacted this year's Q3 comparison. They are now raising prices only once a year, so the Q1 price hike effect should boost Q4 nicely.

      These factors, along with the standard weather related seasonality, should support Q4 and hopefully boost unit growth. This could easily offset the new clinical expenses.

      The possibility of an acquisition has been mentioned for quite a few years now, and no deal has been done. Of course, they have had more time to shop and have piled up more cash to spend so perhaps they will pull the trigger at some point. This risk is ongoing, and if they can find the right deal, it can make sense to give the sales force more to peddle to doctors.

      My bottom line is that the decline from the summer highs has discounted a lot of risks and concerns. At the very least this sets up a decent trade into the seasonally strong Q4 news.

      And by the way, if you continue to direct posts to me that contain any negative facts or concerns about DUSA, and I reply, then don't be surprised if that wise old JIMMY BABY accuses you of being yet another one of my paid bashing aliases!<G>

    • I'm looking for another entry point for some additional shares.

      Price looks pretty good right here BUT feeling we might get one last whammy job to near $3.

      ALSO, having some deje vu all over again.
      I get very nervous when I hear management talking about trying to find another company or product to buy.
      I don't want another Nicomide fiasco.
      And the new clinical trial doesn't sit too well with me either. I don't want another acne trial fiasco.

      Bottom line is, I'm significantly less bullish than I was before Doman starting talking about "finding something to buy."

      Who could blame me?!

    • You need to take your meds,Rincon and I are playinbg games,please do you not understand we have owned this stock for many years,actually too many years.Listen to us and maybe you will make some money.Adamo

    • Doubled sales? DUSA sold 181 BLU-U's so far this year versus 179 last year. Two more units is not a double in my book, but who's counting?<G>

      Management is concentrating on the domestic market because its foreign initiatives have been a bust. Sorry, but I wouldn't describe this subject as a "very smart move" by mangement.

      You may be right about one thing. They could be positioning the firm for an eventual sale. But management has indicated the cash sitting there earning next to nothing may be used to buy or license additional products for their salesforce to peddle. This time shareholders should hope for something a lot better than Nicomide and ClindaReach!<G>

      • 1 Reply to Rincon_PR
      • You know I have been positive for years and only a few times negative but quite frankly either the sales force sucks or there are just not enough to cover the country.Some docs do not even know about Levulan in Virginia Beach where I live and some think it is so concentrated on a single problem that it is not worth the effort.Ys sales of blu-light went up by 2 when it should be going up 25-35% to be really effective.I cannot really tell you what the answer is only that after quarters of profit and free cash flow our PPS has gone from 6.37 at the end of June to 3.46 now,you figure the decline out.Adamo

    • Totally agreed

      Let's see some action

      You gotta love their CEO Doman. He's doing a great job.


    • Where was the phenomenal growth this last quarter? The machines had good growth but the main money maker,the sticks, had bad growth. These should of had better growth because I would imagine that people would buy both of them at the same time during their initial purchase. I also do not think it is a good thing to focus on one market. It increases your risk being only dependent on one market. Remember what people say about being too good to be true. I have had the product used on me once and I was disappointed with its effectiveness. I am a shareholder and believe you are hyping the stock too much with all the risks this sock has.(mainly a one product company, massive selling on decent company news, distributors ending contract early, no share buybacks, little to no insider purchases, mainly dependent on insurance reimbursement rates, and a low share price which some mutual funds can not buy) Nasdaq reports higher institutional purchases but I believe most of that was earlier in the year and there has to be selling now. As I have said in my laST POST, I believe we have hit bottom but am not too bullish due to the fact is that I believe something else is going on. You never know, it might just be a mutual fund with a large position needing to liquidate. If you want another stock pick tell me what you think of ISSI.

      • 2 Replies to primetime5577
      • about ISSI. I don't like the facts that insiders are selling lots of shares around this price.

        Sorry, not my kind of cup of tea.

        I prefer DUSA right now which is looking even much better after the last quarterly report.

        I am very sure we shall see the pps heading back to 5$+ in the near future, as we will approach last quarter report. Supposed to be the best one of the entire year.

        With 7M$ estimated net-income annual income, p/e of 15 which is way too low for a company with year-over-year growth of 100%) plus add to that 25M$ in cash and we're getting a 130M$ market cap which is around 5.5$ pps and that would be just the bottom since i took a real low p/e multiple. In case we change the multiple to 20 (which i consider a much more real scenario) then we're talking of a 160M$ market cap and between 6.5$-7$ pps.

        Should they continue with a 100% growth next year, this could easily reach 10$-15$ share-price.

        This is not a wet dream, these are very low estimate calculations based on the last 3 years earnings and growth.

        In any case we're trading 1.5$ lower than the lower bottom. So any price below 5$ is a steal bargain.


      • "...distributors ending contract early..."

        Provide a link or lose credibility.