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DUSA Pharmaceuticals Inc. Message Board

  • Rincon_PR Rincon_PR Nov 19, 2011 11:13 AM Flag

    Estimates Cut

    Some of the stock's recent weakness could be attributable to our friend at Roth trimming his estimates.

    For Q4, he's now calling for EPS of 13 cents on $13.68 million in revenues versus 15 cents on $14.71 million.

    For 2012, he's now at 40 cents on $53.07 million versus 45 cents on $56.66 million.

    If DUSA hits the 2012 number, the enterprise value to earnings ratio is about 6.25. This valuation discounts negatives such as a weak pipeline and limited long term visibility on the patents. If DUSA meets the estimates, the downside risk appears limited relative to the broad market.

    If another firm believes they can do a significantly better job selling Levulan PDT and expanding the label, then DUSA could be acquired. However, management has indicated they are shopping to buy or license something, and doing so may deter a sale of DUSA.

    Finally, a previous institutional activist investor has come and gone, and I am aware of no current activist interest. DUSA's anti-takover provisions (poison pill and staggered board) will continue to help them defend against an unwanted advance. For now, my guess is that DUSA remains an independent firm for quite some time. Not surprisingly, I think management wants more time to continue their turnaround story...

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    • Now maybe you understand what I have been saying.We have limited sales people who probably make good bucks and nothing to sell other than Levulan.We have tried for years to increase sales and now only around 12% of the market and no pipeline,this guy makes perfect sense but management could careless they make a lot of money and this could go on for years until patent expire then stick a fork in this company.Mangement has put in all the stop gaps so we are dead right now.Adamo

      • 3 Replies to adamo60
      • They have tried for years to raise sales and SUCEEDED. It hasn't been very many years they've had insurance reimbursement, any years prior to that don't count. Sales are growing double digits per year. That's good for a company with a pe of 13.

      • <<< Mangement has put in all the stop gaps so we are dead right now. >>>

        Adamo, let us know when you're done buying!<G>

        But seriously, at $3.50 I believe the stock discounts your concerns. This means there is upside if they exceed expectations. Note the Roth analyst, despite cutting his estimates, has maintained a target price that is considerably higher than $3.50. What happens to the stock if Q4 is strong and the analyst raises his estimates?

        By the way, if DUSA is so "dead" then why on Earth would anyone want to buy it here, let alone at a nice premium? Answer that one my closet bull friend!<G>

      • Both of you paid bashers... and probably the same person with multiple id's.

        Come on, you've been exposed. Get outta here.