if significant disillusionment --- after
anticipated pop - which hasn't occurred.
In fact, if
can be miserable (see KERA -- good news --- no pop
--- pissed short term investors - downgraded
------> in the dumps.)
But ... maybe it will not
Negative - if final approval doesn't
help, it will hurt (same story as today). Bizarre, but
Positive - maybe corporate interest, then, all this
becomes insignificant. Problem --- this is only a hope
--- pie in the sky.
If not, the stock growth
should/could be a function of the company's profitability. See
ya in 2004!
you're out of your mind. there is no way in hell
DUSA gets $33 million on sales in the first year.
It'll be more like $7-10 million tops.
you can see a Dermatologist charging $200 for the
procedure, but I'm not sure your local HMO shares your
you say you're long term, yet your expectations smack
of hype. don't set yourself and the others on this
board up for disappointment. DUSA should edge up into
the high 20s during 2000. That's a pretty good gain.
be happy, but be realistic.
Twice the normal volume and we are up...folks
yesterday the herky jerky lets make a pop crowd threw us
all off. The $3 pop is NOT the play with this stock.
If this gets the proper intstitutional support and
is promoted the properly over the next 60
days....watch out. Timing could not be better. There are two or
three ? major biotech conferences in the next 7 weeks.
Gee, how many companies will be able to say they have
an approved drug with many applications and large
markets, a marketing/distribution partner (worldclass),and
the stock is about 50% undervalued ? The maket cap
for a company in this position is MOUSE NUTS based on
other comparables. Final FDA approval (labeling...big
deal) clears the runway.
Don't be too shocked if
DUSA is sitting at $32.50 on Jan 10.
Your post was excellent and very timely. While we don't know if the numbers $100 or $200. are on track they provide the for instance that DUSA did not provide during the Conference call. Thank you.
I can see a Dermatologist charging easily $200
for the procedure. $100 for self and $100
Schering/Dusa. There are 4 million to be treated in the U.S. The
blu-u light situation as Dr. S indicated will be only a
breakeven situation and not intended to be a revenue
stream. I feel they will be able to penetrate 25% or a
million people by the end of 1 year, 2 million by the 2nd
yr, 3 mill by 3years.
If the split is 33% Dusa on
the money earned that seems to be figures that will
be used in the payment of future studies, it could
therefore be the figure for the earnings.
numbers at the end of 1 yr the earnings would be 1 mill X
100 or 100 million.
Dusa would net 33 million.
Assuming they spend 1/3 of that money on research their
net would be 22 million. With 11 million shares that
makes it $2 per share. At a 30 to 1 because of the
recognition of growth and pipeline, that would make it a $60
stock. Yes I am long term.
Yes I agree the conference
call did not allow the investment community to see or
dream about the potential.
I don't necessarily disagree with that premise.
Even higher proposed pricing numbers presented with
the rationale you pose would be more satisfactory.I
suspect we'll see these when DUSA presents at the H&Q
conference in January. But the sooner the better.
Look for analyst to issue new report and model
for Dusa. Our understanding is that the analyst LOVES
the deal and believes Dusa should DOUBLE over the
next 6 months. If we puts these thoughts in writing,
we should see the pop we have been waiting for.
Schulman likely to be on the road meeting with
institutional investors in the next couple of weeks. I suspect
it will be a very nice holiday season for Dusa
some seem to be focused on comparing the cost to
current treatments as though it shouldn't be more (some
analysts)...in my opinion a treatment that is much preferable to
the patient due to pain, scaring, etc. has to be
worth MORE...not the same
I hope you're right megapix, but what financial
facts were mentioned in the conference call or for that
matter exist anywhere at this point that would induce
these institutional buyers to purchase shares within
the next six weeks? It isn't at all clear to me how
much income will be derived from sales of Levulan PDT.
The company hasn't told us what it would charge for
the solution per application. Accordingly, cost to
produce, distribute, gross and net profit,etc. are open to
speculation. It would be nice to have some numbers to crunch.
We know there are approximately 4 million new cases
of actinic keraroses per year, but little else.
The only smart money that moved in this stock are
those that sold at its high today and bought back in
$1-2 lower. Those that bailed made a dumb
mistake....this stock is going to charge forward and promises to
be a mid 20's stock over the next 6
weeks....conservatively. The institutional support has not even begun yet.
The funny part about this is that no one will be able
to predict the moves. Final FDA approval may give it
a spurt, but the real money will come when a whole
new wave of buyers comes in and lifts this boat
up...and you can't pinpoint when that will happen. By the
time a strong analyst upgrade comes, they will have
already packed away a ton of the stock for their own
accounts.....thanks to the willing sheep that are
PAY DAY IS JUST BEGINNING !
there was some trading going on today due to the
volume which hit late yesterday in the last
Those attempts at a quick trade held back the stock
today. Sells carry a lot more weight than buys in a
situation like this.
Most of the 'traders' are now
probably gone so I expect a ramp into final approval and
then accelerating into the H&Q healthcare conf the 2nd
week of January...unless of course an analyst gets
more aggressive before then
the party is only starting