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DUSA Pharmaceuticals Inc. Message Board

  • Joe_Willie98 Joe_Willie98 Nov 23, 1999 12:07 PM Flag

    In fact, near term could be quite bad

    if significant disillusionment --- after
    anticipated pop - which hasn't occurred.

    In fact, if
    can be miserable (see KERA -- good news --- no pop
    --- pissed short term investors - downgraded
    ------> in the dumps.)

    But ... maybe it will not
    happen.

    Negative - if final approval doesn't
    help, it will hurt (same story as today). Bizarre, but
    true.

    Positive - maybe corporate interest, then, all this
    becomes insignificant. Problem --- this is only a hope
    --- pie in the sky.

    If not, the stock growth
    should/could be a function of the company's profitability. See
    ya in 2004!

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    • you're out of your mind. there is no way in hell
      DUSA gets $33 million on sales in the first year.
      It'll be more like $7-10 million tops.

      and maybe
      you can see a Dermatologist charging $200 for the
      procedure, but I'm not sure your local HMO shares your
      perception.

      you say you're long term, yet your expectations smack
      of hype. don't set yourself and the others on this
      board up for disappointment. DUSA should edge up into
      the high 20s during 2000. That's a pretty good gain.
      be happy, but be realistic.

    • Twice the normal volume and we are up...folks
      yesterday the herky jerky lets make a pop crowd threw us
      all off. The $3 pop is NOT the play with this stock.
      If this gets the proper intstitutional support and
      is promoted the properly over the next 60
      days....watch out. Timing could not be better. There are two or
      three ? major biotech conferences in the next 7 weeks.
      Gee, how many companies will be able to say they have
      an approved drug with many applications and large
      markets, a marketing/distribution partner (worldclass),and
      the stock is about 50% undervalued ? The maket cap
      for a company in this position is MOUSE NUTS based on
      other comparables. Final FDA approval (labeling...big
      deal) clears the runway.

      Don't be too shocked if
      DUSA is sitting at $32.50 on Jan 10.

    • Your post was excellent and very timely. While we don't know if the numbers $100 or $200. are on track they provide the for instance that DUSA did not provide during the Conference call. Thank you.

    • I can see a Dermatologist charging easily $200
      for the procedure. $100 for self and $100
      for
      Schering/Dusa. There are 4 million to be treated in the U.S. The
      blu-u light situation as Dr. S indicated will be only a
      breakeven situation and not intended to be a revenue
      stream. I feel they will be able to penetrate 25% or a
      million people by the end of 1 year, 2 million by the 2nd
      yr, 3 mill by 3years.
      If the split is 33% Dusa on
      the money earned that seems to be figures that will
      be used in the payment of future studies, it could
      therefore be the figure for the earnings.
      Using those
      numbers at the end of 1 yr the earnings would be 1 mill X
      100 or 100 million.
      Dusa would net 33 million.
      Assuming they spend 1/3 of that money on research their
      net would be 22 million. With 11 million shares that
      makes it $2 per share. At a 30 to 1 because of the
      recognition of growth and pipeline, that would make it a $60
      stock. Yes I am long term.
      Yes I agree the conference
      call did not allow the investment community to see or
      dream about the potential.

    • I don't necessarily disagree with that premise.
      Even higher proposed pricing numbers presented with
      the rationale you pose would be more satisfactory.I
      suspect we'll see these when DUSA presents at the H&Q
      conference in January. But the sooner the better.

    • Look for analyst to issue new report and model
      for Dusa. Our understanding is that the analyst LOVES
      the deal and believes Dusa should DOUBLE over the
      next 6 months. If we puts these thoughts in writing,
      we should see the pop we have been waiting for.
      Schulman likely to be on the road meeting with
      institutional investors in the next couple of weeks. I suspect
      it will be a very nice holiday season for Dusa
      holders!

    • some seem to be focused on comparing the cost to
      current treatments as though it shouldn't be more (some
      analysts)...in my opinion a treatment that is much preferable to
      the patient due to pain, scaring, etc. has to be
      worth MORE...not the same

    • I hope you're right megapix, but what financial
      facts were mentioned in the conference call or for that
      matter exist anywhere at this point that would induce
      these institutional buyers to purchase shares within
      the next six weeks? It isn't at all clear to me how
      much income will be derived from sales of Levulan PDT.
      The company hasn't told us what it would charge for
      the solution per application. Accordingly, cost to
      produce, distribute, gross and net profit,etc. are open to
      speculation. It would be nice to have some numbers to crunch.
      We know there are approximately 4 million new cases
      of actinic keraroses per year, but little else.

    • The only smart money that moved in this stock are
      those that sold at its high today and bought back in
      $1-2 lower. Those that bailed made a dumb
      mistake....this stock is going to charge forward and promises to
      be a mid 20's stock over the next 6
      weeks....conservatively. The institutional support has not even begun yet.
      The funny part about this is that no one will be able
      to predict the moves. Final FDA approval may give it
      a spurt, but the real money will come when a whole
      new wave of buyers comes in and lifts this boat
      up...and you can't pinpoint when that will happen. By the
      time a strong analyst upgrade comes, they will have
      already packed away a ton of the stock for their own
      accounts.....thanks to the willing sheep that are
      selling.


      PAY DAY IS JUST BEGINNING !

    • there was some trading going on today due to the
      volume which hit late yesterday in the last
      hour.

      Those attempts at a quick trade held back the stock
      today. Sells carry a lot more weight than buys in a
      situation like this.

      Most of the 'traders' are now
      probably gone so I expect a ramp into final approval and
      then accelerating into the H&Q healthcare conf the 2nd
      week of January...unless of course an analyst gets
      more aggressive before then

      anything can
      happen

      the party is only starting

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