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DUSA Pharmaceuticals Inc. Message Board

  • crosspond crosspond Nov 24, 1999 9:27 AM Flag

    Stay the course..

    The days of investing have changed. The number of
    daytraders increases everyday and with it comes the
    ignorance. Very few make any $ and most lose it all. Who
    does make a bundle is the MM. These daytraders search
    the boards for news like DUSA had yesterday. They buy
    on news at the opening, the stock sells off and they
    spend all day trying to get their money back 1/8 at a
    time. You can throw out what happened with DUSA
    yesterday. Watch the next few weeks and you will see what
    the real trend is going to be. I really feel for the
    ones that have been here a while and sold yesterday.
    They fell for the trap and strategy that the
    specialists set for the daytraders trying to make a quick
    buck. Once this news sinks in to the biotech sector you
    will see the injection of volume and increase in this
    stock. Yesterday was a monster step. Don't let the
    daytrader activity sway your opinion. If you were a MM,
    wouldn't you like to steal some cheap shares of DUSA after
    yesterday's news? DUSA will be mid-20's at sometime between
    now and the end of the year. And yes, if we don't
    start up today you can count on next week getting a
    postive pop. Long and loving it more everyday.

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    • I agree many patients would like to demand this
      treatment, but unfortunately the system does not always work
      that way.

      Anyway, this cancer typically would
      lead to superficial squamous cell which typically is
      treated via cutting the cancer out. (levulan would still
      be cheaper). The problem is that for every 1 AK
      lesion, there is only a small chance that it will turn
      cancerous. For an individual who continues to have lesions,
      I believe that over their lifetime, they may have a
      10% chance of a lesion becoming cancerous. Therefore,
      the insurance co's question the need to treat all
      lesions.

    • Another data point....look at some recent
      biotechs that have released their primary products in
      markets sized at less that that for
      DUSA....

      CORR....market cap 493million
      CEPH...market cap 731
      million
      DUSA...market cap 194million

      I would say that commercial
      release in Q1 with decent revenue flow will pump DUSA to
      $40-45 range in late Q1. I would also suggest that 22-28
      is a slam dunk over the next 6 weeks. As has been
      discussed many times on this board, with all the
      applications and markets, its not too hard to imagine DUSA
      with a 1Billion dollar market cap...putting todays
      shares at a value of about $85.

      Remember, don't
      compare DUSA's stock price to other companies stock
      price....that's meaningless. Look at the total valuation of the
      company (market cap) and you will conclude that DUSA is
      GROSSLY undervalued as we sit here today.

      ENJOY
      the ride !

    • Does anyone know if the deal has a provision for
      Schering to pay a bigger stake in DUSA via equity
      investment. And, if so, were terms of any future investment
      disclosed. It seems logical that the deal would include some
      options for larger investment by Schering, and this could
      be very positive for DUSA investors.

    • Just listened to Murphy's hotline and he is very
      postive on the partnership agreement. He likes the idea
      of a European company breaking into the American
      dermatology market using DUSA as the entry point. Also said
      that he is trying to verify, but he believes that DUSA
      may have negotiated one of the better royalty
      agreements (above 30%).
      Happy Thanksgiving to all the
      Longs.

    • If Levulan manages to prevent 1 in 1000 AK
      patients from developing cancer (and assuming it costs
      $250,000 to treat someone with skin cancer) wouldn't a
      treatment priced at $150 still save the insurance company
      $100,000?

      Wouldn't insurance companies DEMAND that patients receive
      this treatment if it really is that much better at
      destroying AK's?

      (NOTE: I have no idea what it really
      costs to treat cancer, but $250,000 seems like a fair
      number.)

    • Your comments are really geared to the immediate
      short term period of DUSA's product.
      If as
      anticipated this is the best thing on the market then
      everything else will be #2. No one will have to get creative
      to have it covered under insurance. If it is smoke
      and mirrors and it has a much less success rate that
      the inital studies show. We're sunk. I don't see a
      half way point here.

    • I think the insurance issue is the biggest driver
      in the success of this product. Therapuetically, it
      is a better option than anything, but it is also
      more expensive. Many states already have severe
      restrictions on the treatment of AK lesions. 1st requirement
      is effudex which is paid for by the patient
      (assuming medicare coverage), because it is an
      RX.

      Second choice is liquid nitrogen which is covered by
      numbers of lesions.

      The success of Levulan will
      be determined by whatever creative coverage can be
      arranged or if it is focused on the users who care about
      more "cosmetic" issues and are willing to pay
      themselves. I think this is a great treatment but like
      others, I think the real opportunities is in some of the
      other indications such as acne.

    • If we take your $45. total and replace Artermd's figures then complete his equation I believe it comes to the $10 million figure which is pebster's high estimate.

    • Dermatologists get NOTHING but the cost of an
      office visit when they use Efudex. When they use Levulan
      they willl be able to use a destruction code when they
      bill. For example:

      One AK $45
      Two-15 AKs $15
      each
      >15 $250
      This is a rough estimate but it just
      shows that physicians have an incentive to use the ALA
      and not use Efudex. There will be VERY RAPID
      penetration in the market for this product because the DERMs
      who don't use it will NOT MAKE AS MUCH MONEY and not
      only that but lose customers because no patient will
      prefer efudex.

    • I just started reading the8K filing by Dusa on
      agreement with Schering. Some items of note are as
      follows:

      1)Schering is paying about $18.36 per share for their 2.9%
      interest in Dusa (this is the $6.5 million equity
      investment).

      2)The R&D commitment by Schering for 2000 and 2001 is
      $3 million each year (Dusa will commit to $1.5
      million)...ACNE, HAIR REMOVAL, BASAL CELL CARCINOMA here we
      come!

      3)While Dusa is responsible for providing the light
      source to Doctors, Schulman stated on the call that this
      will not cost Dusa anything much out of pocket because
      they will use lease financing. Schering will be
      guaranteeing the Doctor's lease payments to Dusa plus
      providing Dusa with an INTEREST FREE $1 million line to
      finance the light purchases...EXCELLENT!

      More to
      come as I read on...anyone can get the filing on
      freeedgar.com

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