IMHO, I would wait or take profit in this stock
semiconductor equipment market calms
down. There are still
major push-outs and equipment
cancelations, some of which
will effect NVLS. Many major
semis are cutting expenses by
putting off major
I really like this company, but will sit
on my hands until
the picture becomes clearer (or
the price reaches high 20s!)
With the internet porthole stocks exploding
upwards there is indeed great anticipation for the future
of that industry. It doesn't jive though that the
equipment makers will remain in the dumps. For the AMZNs
and YHOOs of the world to thrive and justify the
mania induced valuations, many more computers must be
purchased. This bodes well for NVLS, AMAT, and their
The Stock Market
lol...just kidding. they warned for current, 3rd
qtr and for next qtr. no big deal. The good news:
analysts will keep lowering estimates...you got to love
it. next year, you will see lots of "positive
surprises"..due to those lowered estimates. guess what these
stocks do next year ? :) . my view: we are very much
near the bottom. Wafer Engineer said not to buy NVLS
before earning. I guess he knows. so perhaps you want to
wait for NVLS to come with their #;s, CC, then buy
some. Chart looks much better now. Monday we should get
a sympathy (AMAT) pullback. then you got the trade
show. then earnings.
That's the problem - they aren't buying right
now. Orders are being pushed out. Third qtr orders are
getting delayed until 4qtr or 1st qtr next year. 4th qtr
same. There will be an explosive growth, but it isn't
going to happen this year.
Worth Magazine, July/August 1998 issue
They're Buying Now"
Martin J. Whitman - Third Avenue
Value Fund :
His comments about the semiconductor
"...we anticipate that the industry
will undergo explosive growth as the number of
applications that use semiconductors increases and as
manufactures re-equip facilities with newer technology."
If you do, then you buy equipment makers.
In case you did not get a chance to read this
Also, T/A of NVLS starts to look better. I will not be
surprised if the 3rd qtr will be lower than expected.
However, we are entering the 2nd half of Fiscal '98.
Analysts/fund managers are now looking into '99 and beyond.
NVLS, others, already took huge correction that
reflects these warnings, lower results, imo. The key
issue, therefor: valuations going forward. And trust me,
they are BY FAR more attractive than those of YHOO,
XCIT, LCOS, AMZN (although internet has spectacular
growth a head)...hope you see the point.
the 20's. I rather sell out of the money covered
calls on rallies, then sell NVLS here . Stock is
trading at discount to future growth.imo. You want to
wait for industry turnaround ? you can do that. There
is nothing wrong with that approach. You will
probably have to pay high 40's+ for NVLS when this will
Semicon West will generate some excitement
Monday-Wednesday, but as was stated, this doesn't always cause the
stock to jump. Thursday NVLS will announce their
earnings and should talk about an ugly 3rd qtr. Look for
the stock to drop by the end of next week. Long term
buy, but I'd wait a week or so before I buy.