my view: breakdown of MACK's worth right now of $13 per share
MM121: 8 dollars. (based on bio-marker driven positive phase 2 in both breast and ovarian, and having Sanofi as big pharm partner who foots the bills on clinical trial phase 3 to come)
MM398: 3 dollars. (to increase to 5-10 when phase 3 succeeds. 5 if trial comes out positive as expected. 10 if data as strong as first line gem. recent nejm published study showed gem os at 7 plus month only and with addn of albumin paxel,,only 8.5 months but loads of myelosuppresion and significant neuropathy)
rest of the pipeline: 2 dollars (conservative but hey)
It's really really important to keep the details straight here.
The gemcitabine study you are referring to in the NEJM is a FRONT LINE study and not in REFRACTORY pancreatic cancer, the indication that MACK is pursuing. It's a bit of an apples and oranges comparison and an extremely easy (and common) mistake to make. But having those numbers in your head might be helpful anyway because if MM398 gets something near the front line numbers it will be a game changer.
We're all going to be interested to see what happens to the market cap in the event of a positive 398 trial. My sense is that there are a lot of institutions sitting on the sidelines waiting for the pancreatic results to come in, and there could be a bit of a stampede if the trial comes out as we expect it to. Many are not looking past this point in time, and despite the positive ovarian and breast cancer trials with MM121, the market has not attached much value to them yet. When they wake up to see what a valuable target Erb3 is, then the 8 dollars you quote will definitely be a conservative estimate.
thank you boogin for pointing that out, although in this case i actually know the distinction between gem being the first line and that mm398 has started out as a second line. my point was that if mm398 outperforms by a mile, then it begs the question in the clinicians' mind that besides using gem as a first line in some cases perhaps there is an option of using mm398 in some other cases.