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Overstock.com Inc. Message Board

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  • SA1212 SA1212 Sep 23, 2004 2:25 PM Flag

    Garbage Stock

    Hey, if you are such a believer in this "thing" to be trading below $20, why don't you put your money where your mouth is and sell me some OSTK shares at lets say $19?
    After all you believe that is a fair price. Or did we misunderstand you?

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    • Reality, and then speculation are two different things. This thing has too small of a float to short at the moment. If it really takes a run I'll look at some puts. That seems to be a safer bet. You have to admit, this thing earns no profits, is competing with a product that outside of the advertisement with the really hot girl has nothing that makes it stand out. It's a bubble company, whenever they report that they have to issue new shares, or miss earnings... there'll be tons of bagholders. Until then, let the manipulation continue. I'll watch until it gets extremely ahead of itself...

      • 1 Reply to gonemaroon
      • I disagree. Overstock.com grows its revenue at the very nice pace. Earnings are not important for fast growing company. They are doing what every serious growing comany would have done, growning revenue as fast as thay can sustain and at the same time keeping losses small so that they can still afford them. When revenue gets to over a billion a year they will slow down, reduce their expenses that are associated with rapid growth. Than they will start making nice small profit, lets say 5-8% of revenue. The sweet part of this is that it will be percent of over a billion in revenues.
        Retailers that have one billion in sales are usually valued at one to two billion. This why it looks like when OSTK starts bringing 1 billion in revenues its share price should be about $70-$120 (if they don't split the stock).

        Of course there is risk. If there weren't any stock would be trading at $60 right now.
        I think it is fairly valued at about $40 (if they have good winter quarter then it will be $50).

        This is talking about fair price. What will it be trading at is prediction that I don't bother to make. If if gets in the area above $60 too soon then I will sell.

 
OSTK
25.21+0.20(+0.80%)Nov 26 4:00 PMEST

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