Initiating a short position. The financial performance and outlook do not support this stock being in the $70s. It should be comfortably trading in the $45 to $50 range, but not up here.
Yes, I closed it out just below $73. Not what I had hoped, but the lack of liquidity made it tough to close out at a good price and I don't hold long. I want to be in and out in hours or days, not weeks. Due to the lack of liquidity, I wasn't intending to trade this stock again, but I couldn't resist when it soared yesterday. So, I am back in with a short at $78.65 this time. I also took shorts end of last week on STI, SWK, WHR and GG that I covered Tuesday, but shorted again when they ran up yesterday. I can be wrong (and GG could be a really bad short given it's a gold miner and all of these stocks have been soaring and could keep soaring) and again these are trades, not investments, but I just think the economic data (like 13% decline in capital goods orders reported yesterday) has got to take something out of these stocks that are up 50% to 100%. Would enjoy hearing what others are trading. Long or short, we are all just trying to make a little money in a lousy economy for fixed income investing. Best of luck.
I've watched this stock for over 10 years. In my opinion you are making a serious mistake shorting it. It was stuck forever at 20 or so, operating out of a crappy warehouse in Hawthorne, but this guy Chopra has built it into something. I dom't like shorting battle tested companies.
I agree with you in most respects. I have visited the Hawthorne facility many times and Deepak and his team should be congratulated on their performance. I can remember when the stock was $2 per share, but 9/11 changed that over night. And, great execution with numerous acquisitions over time improved upon it. Still, I am trading it short because I believe it has dramatically overrun its current valuation. If it still goes up, I will lose on it, but I will gain on my other industrials (like Eaton). It's a hedge bet. I believe OSI has a lot more downside risk than upside potential while I believe my other industrial bets have greater upside and less downside. Not an industrial (a commodities play), but something you may want to look at is VALE right now. It is way down this year and pays a 6%+ dividend. It's a Brazilian miner and Brazil is very likely to put forth a stimulus package soon. And, if China does the same, there would be even more upside. Good luck.
Not "trying" anything. Just new to the stock and initiating a dialogue. If I thought it were undervalued, I would be long. But, this one appears grossly overvalued and going lower. I shorted over $74 yesterday and close to $75 today. The Roth report gave me a chance to increase my short position today. Roth is a major (if not the major) OSI banker, so their analyst's opinion is not credible (especially since I have experience with Roth). Over time, this stock will settle down to where it belongs. If not, I will lose money. If it goes where I think it should, I will make a solid ROI. Time will tell. If you can tell me why it should go up from $74 though, I would appreciate it.