I disagree with you on the Fed natural. I'd bet my entire STKL position that there's going to be a fed-rate increase 6/30...only question is 25bp or 50 (markets are priced in at 25 already). I believe that if the Fed didn't raise the rate next week, you'd see total chaos in the markets due to their actions being contradictory to their statements. Not even a remote posibility. As to the oil situation, I think manufacturers and distributors have taken oil prices up the butt as long as they're going to. You're going to see BIG price increases across all parts of the market basket - and soon. Of course, this won't make much of an impact on the richer half of the country (ok, maybe the hummer will stay in the garage a bit more and the 'little' V8 SUV will be the errand vehicle) - but we're about to have an acceleration of the 'rich get richer, poor get poorer' syndrome. My opinion, of course.
California's coming recession will come in another 2 years. Housing Prices will drop 30% we will see all those people that bought houses on the Interest Only ARM have payment increases at the 1st Adjustment and then 6-12months later we'll start seeing the foreclosures. There is legislation right now to raise the already high gas tax another 50cents. Mom & Pop Trucking Companies will be spending an extra $200K per year in Fuel Taxes to the state which will force many of them out of business. California refuses to deal with it's illegal immigration problem and actually cities continue to further the problem because they sanction and finance day labor centers and strong arm business into allowing trailer work centers on their properties where they get jobs illegally on street corners. There have been numerous hospital closings here in the LA area in the last year with threats to shut down more. Many hospitals are closing their trauma centers. We are in for another good recession. It's all cyclical. We are at the top and the indicators are there for the decline. It's just a matter of time. I'm already ready to re adjust my business strategy for my sales staff when the decline comes.