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SunOpta Inc. Message Board

  • retireb4death retireb4death Sep 23, 2005 10:11 AM Flag

    My take on numbers in the present...

    Sorry for the scrunching Yahoo puts on a table when you post.
    I match analyst estimates on eps so long as no Steam revenue is included. Since the cost of the Steam group is grouped with Corp, I'm adding 100% of revs to net and getting .09 addt'l eps. You'll have to 'guess' your own acceptable margin on Steam to get to a true eps addition. For my part, I'm 'guessing' 20-25% and that gives us .02 on eps. Could be the difference between .01 miss and .01 exceed on the next earnings release.

    good luck longs!

    Revenues Margin Net
    Grain 28% 102,760 7.00% 7,193
    Ingred 18% 66,060 6.50% 4,294
    Fruit 8% 29,360 5.60% 1,644
    Pkgd 15% 55,050 3.70% 2,037
    Distr 31% 113,770 2.50% 2,844

    Food Grp Ttl 367,000

    Minerals 38,000 14.00% 5,320

    Corp (backed into it) (10,000)

    TOTAL 405,000 13,332

    Shrs O/S 56,800
    Per Share 7.13 0.23

    Steam revs 5,000 ??? 5,000
    ADJ TOTAL 410,000 18,332

    Adj Per Share 7.22 0.32

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    • Have you factored in the high cost of fuel for processing and distribution of the company's products? Nah, why bother...

      • 1 Reply to tomjoad56
      • you're half right Tom...why bother, since freight is paid by the buyer. If it's SunOpta product, then the wholesale price has the increase calc'ed into it. If it's third party product being distributed, then shipping is paid by buyer (or seller). Guess we'll find out in about 6 weeks who's right, eh?

        One more point, I used the low end of all estimates in my calc (note that my total revenues are a good $5mm below analysts expectations - but JK's getting some better margins so far this year and that's goosing the numbers). I'm gonna be HIGHLY surprised if they don't make numbers the rest of the year.

        I really liked pg 25, btw, where they break-out organic rev growth opposed to acquisition rev growth. Granted, that doesn't mean eps will increase those % - just have to trust JK to keep moving toward those target margins!

    • Good analysis. Of course a strong case was made by our resident engineers (against my guess of 20%) that margins SHOULD be 40-50%, in which case we would be talking $0.04 added to EPS for Q3.

 
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